Multi-Hazard Early Warning System

CAP-compliant, Sendai Framework-aligned early warning for civil protection and DRR agencies.

Sendai Framework Target G: "Substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems." Calamity provides a ready-to-deploy MHEWS that covers all four EW4All pillars — available immediately for countries that lack multi-hazard monitoring infrastructure.

Four Pillars of Early Warning

1Disaster Risk Knowledge

Sendai: Understanding risk through data collection and analysis

CalamityScore (0-100) fuses intensity, population exposure, cascade probability, and historical context from 250 data sources into a single risk metric for any location worldwide.

2Detection & Monitoring

Sendai: Continuous monitoring of hazard parameters

250 scientific data sources polled every 45 seconds to 6 hours across 4 tiers. 16 hazard types, cross-source deduplication, and sub-minute detection for seismic and tsunami events.

3Warning Dissemination

Sendai: Timely and actionable warnings to at-risk populations

CAP v1.2 XML feed (OASIS standard) with severity and hazard-type filtering. Direct integration with national alert systems via Common Alerting Protocol.

4Preparedness & Response

Sendai: Strengthening preparedness for effective response

Cascade modeling engine with 20 probabilistic rules generates actionable narratives: "earthquake M6.5 detected → 68% landslide probability → 3 municipalities at risk → 45,000 people exposed."

CAP XML Feed

Standard Common Alerting Protocol v1.2 output, compatible with all national alert systems. Filter by minimum CalamityScore, hazard type, and time window.

GET /api/v2/cap?min_score=30&hours=24
Content-Type: application/xml

<alert xmlns="urn:oasis:names:tc:emergency:cap:1.2">
  <identifier>calamity-feed-1709913600</identifier>
  <sender>calamity.live</sender>
  <status>Actual</status>
  <msgType>Alert</msgType>
  <scope>Public</scope>
  <info>
    <category>Geo</category>
    <event>M6.5 Earthquake — Hatay Province</event>
    <urgency>Immediate</urgency>
    <severity>Extreme</severity>
    <certainty>Observed</certainty>
    <parameter>
      <valueName>CascadeRisk</valueName>
      <value>landslide: 68%</value>
    </parameter>
    <area>
      <circle>36.2,36.15 80</circle>
    </area>
  </info>
</alert>

Cascade Analysis Narratives

When a significant event is detected, our engine generates actionable text for emergency operators:

Event: Earthquake M6.5 — Turkey, Hatay Province Detected: 2026-03-10 14:32 UTC CalamityScore: 78/100 ⚠️ CASCADE RISK ANALYSIS: 1. Landslide risk (68% probability) — within 24h, radius 40km Population at risk: 450,000 2. Aftershock M5+ (45% probability) — within 7 days 3. Structural collapse (35% probability) — immediate

Case Study: Turkey-Syria 2023

How Calamity's cascade engine would have tracked the deadliest earthquake sequence in decades:

06 Feb 2023 01:17 UTC

M7.8 earthquake detected near Gaziantep, Turkey

Score: 94/100

+2 minutes

Cascade alert: tsunami risk for Eastern Mediterranean (probability: 45%)

+5 minutes

Cascade alert: landslide risk within 80km radius (probability: 72%)

+12 minutes

Aftershock M6.7 detected — cascade amplification triggered

Score: 89/100

+45 minutes

Population exposure calculated: 13.5M people within 100km

+9 hours

M7.5 aftershock detected — second cascade chain activated

Score: 91/100

7-Day Forecast — Sendai Compliance

The Calamity Forecast Index (CFI) produces a 0-100 risk score per country and hazard type, updated daily. It is a direct implementation of Sendai Framework Target G — "substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems."

GET /api/v2/forecast/JP

→ { "country": "JP", "scores": [
    { "hazardType": "earthquake", "cfi": 67, "level": "elevated",
      "drivers": "seismic trend +40% above 90d baseline" },
    { "hazardType": "tsunami",    "cfi": 45, "level": "moderate",
      "drivers": "cascade correlation with earthquake activity" },
    { "hazardType": "volcano",    "cfi": 32, "level": "moderate",
      "drivers": "seasonal baseline, no anomaly detected" }
  ] }

CFI components: cascade correlation (30%), return period analysis (25%), seasonal baseline (20%), trend anomaly (15%), news velocity (10%). Fully automated — zero operational cost for the agency.

Country Rating — Continuous Situational Awareness

Every country receives a structural rating (A-E) and an operational color code (green/yellow/orange/red), updated every polling cycle. When a country downgrades to D or E, the system automatically generates a CAP XML alert and a briefing text — ready for civil protection dispatch.

RATING CHANGE DETECTED: Country: Turkey (TR) Previous: B / yellow Current: D / red BRIEF: Turkey downgraded to D/red following M6.2 earthquake in Hatay Province. Cascade risk active: landslide probability 68%, aftershock M5+ probability 45%. 3 provinces under elevated alert. → CAP XML attached for national alert system integration → Delta history available via /api/v2/rating/deltas

Grant Eligibility

Calamity subscriptions may qualify for funding under:

→Horizon Europe — Cluster 3 (DRS, Disaster Resilient Societies)
→Green Climate Fund (GCF) — Readiness grants for developing countries
→CREWS Initiative — Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems
→World Bank GFDRR — Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery
→UNDRR — PreventionWeb solution registry

We provide a support letter and technical description for grant applications. Contact us at gov@calamity.live.

Pricing

Government

$199/month

✓CAP v1.2 XML feed (/api/v2/cap)
✓Cascade analysis narratives (/api/v2/narrative)
✓CalamityScore + hazard type filters
✓50,000 API requests/day
✓All 16 hazard types + cascade data
✓14-day free trial

UN / NGO

Grant-eligible

✓Everything in Government
✓Co-branding support
✓Grant application assistance
✓Custom integration support
✓Technical description for proposals

Start Free Trial →Contact for Grant Support →Methodology →