Civil protection

Multi-hazard monitoring for the people who act on it

CAP-compliant and aligned with the Sendai Framework, for civil protection and disaster risk reduction agencies.

Sendai Framework Target G: "Substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems." Calamity is not an early warning system and does not replace one. It is an informational research feed that gathers what scientific and official sources publish, with their sources, and can support work under each of the four EW4All pillars.

Four Pillars of Early Warning

1Disaster Risk Knowledge

Sendai: Understanding risk through data collection and analysis

CalamityScore (0-100) fuses intensity, urban exposure index, cascade scenario weight, and historical context into a heuristic activity index, with coverage and limitations shown separately.

2Detection & Monitoring

Sendai: Continuous monitoring of hazard parameters

80 registered scientific sources with polling tiers from 45 seconds to 6 hours. Actual availability and publication delay vary by source; coverage status accompanies observations.

3Warning Dissemination

Sendai: Timely and actionable warnings to at-risk populations

CAP v1.2 XML feed (OASIS standard) with severity and hazard-type filtering. It is an informational research feed, not an official alert: a national system that ingests it must validate its own workflow.

4Preparedness & Response

Sendai: Strengthening preparedness for effective response

Each event page lists heuristic scenarios of possible secondary hazards from 20 rules derived from peer-reviewed literature, without probabilities: "earthquake M6.5 detected → landslide chain flagged → target area flagged → urban exposure index available separately."

CAP XML Feed

Common Alerting Protocol v1.2 output; receiving systems must validate their integration. Filter by minimum CalamityScore, hazard type, and time window.

GET /api/v2/cap?min_score=30&hours=24
Content-Type: application/xml

<alert xmlns="urn:oasis:names:tc:emergency:cap:1.2">
  <identifier>calamity-synthetic-example</identifier>
  <sender>calamity.live</sender>
  <sent>2026-03-10T14:32:00Z</sent>
  <status>Test</status>
  <msgType>Alert</msgType>
  <scope>Public</scope>
  <info>
    <category>Geo</category>
    <event>M6.5 Earthquake, Hatay Province</event>
    <urgency>Immediate</urgency>
    <severity>Extreme</severity>
    <certainty>Observed</certainty>
    <description>Synthetic schema example, not an issued public warning.</description>
    <parameter>
      <valueName>CascadeScenario</valueName>
      <value>landslide mechanism; target location undetermined; not a probability</value>
    </parameter>
  </info>
</alert>

Cascade Analysis Narratives

When a significant event is detected, our engine generates actionable text for emergency operators. The sample below is a worked example, not a live event:

Worked example, not a live event Event: Earthquake M6.5, Turkey, Hatay Province Observation time: illustrative only Priority score: omitted without the complete input components ⚠️ CASCADE CHAINS FLAGGED: 1. Landslide mechanism, target footprint not established Population estimate unavailable without a compatible footprint and grid 2. Aftershock activity, scenario, not a calibrated occurrence forecast 3. Structural damage, scenario requiring local assessment No probability is published for these chains. See /methodology.

Illustrative workflow, synthetic example

This synthetic workflow is not a historical reconstruction or a measured detection-time claim. No retained input vintage proves how Calamity would have assessed the Turkey-Syria 2023 sequence. Scores and delivery times are therefore omitted.

Observation

A source reports an earthquake; retain its location, magnitude and observation time.

Assessment

Check relevant cascade mechanisms and target geography; an inland earthquake does not automatically imply a tsunami.

Exposure

Report urban exposure indices separately from compatible gridded population estimates, with dataset and coverage.

Revision

Preserve material source corrections and model versions; review current assessments against official guidance.

Country activity and scenario assessment

The Calamity Forecast Index (CFI) produces a 0-100 risk score per country and hazard type, with recorded coverage, computation time and validity. This heuristic index is not a calibrated seven-day forecast or a certification of Sendai compliance.

GET /api/v2/forecast/JP

# Synthetic values in the shape the API answers; not a live assessment
→ [
    { "country_code": "JP", "hazard_type": "flood", "score": 27, "level": "moderate",
      "components": { "cascade": 0, "returnPeriod": 15, "seasonal": 100,
                      "trendAnomaly": 18, "newsVelocity": 3 },
      "drivers": ["Global calendar prior for Flood; no local seasonal estimate for Japan"],
      "model_version": "cfi-2", "computed_at": 1790281700426,
      "valid_until": 1790288900426, "state": "assessed" },
    …
  ]

CFI components: cascade correlation (30%), recorded activity frequency (25%), global seasonal prior (20%), trend anomaly (15%), media attention (10%). Input coverage and validity must accompany each use.

Country Rating, Continuous Situational Awareness

Selected assessed countries receive an activity rating (A-E) and an operational color code (green/yellow/orange/red), with computation time and validity. Significant changes generate a briefing and, when required fields are available, CAP output. Operators must validate the receiving workflow; this is not an official warning service.

SYNTHETIC RATING CHANGE EXAMPLE, NOT A LIVE OR HISTORICAL ASSESSMENT: Country: Turkey (TR) Previous: B / yellow Current: D / red BRIEF: Turkey downgraded to D/red following M6.2 earthquake in Hatay Province. Cascade risk active: landslide scenario flagged; no calibrated landslide or aftershock probability is available. Affected administrative areas: not established in this example. → CAP XML attached for national alert system integration → Delta history available via /api/v2/rating/deltas

What is available

✓CAP v1.2 XML feed (/api/v2/cap), open
✓Archive metadata and permitted source facts from /api/v2/bulk-export, up to 10,000 records with per-record rights
✓CalamityScore and hazard-type filters on every read endpoint, no key
✓Scheduled deliveries and formats built to your schema, by written arrangement

Read the API docs →Write to us →Methodology →