Calamity Forecast Index
7-day multi-hazard risk assessment for every country. Updated every 5 minutes from 250 scientific sources.
Last updated: Aug 14, 2026, 1:48 AM
Top Countries at Risk
| Country | CFI Score | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| 🇭🇺 Hungary | 88 | critical |
| 🇸🇿 Eswatini | 84 | critical |
| 🇮🇩 Indonesia | 81 | critical |
| 🇧🇼 Botswana | 81 | critical |
| 🇳🇦 Namibia | 80 | critical |
| 🇹🇿 Tanzania | 79 | high |
| 🇿🇼 Zimbabwe | 78 | high |
| 🇲🇿 Mozambique | 78 | high |
| 🇲🇬 Madagascar | 77 | high |
| 🇿🇲 Zambia | 77 | high |
Methodology
The Calamity Forecast Index (CFI) is a deterministic 0–100 risk assessment score computed for every country × hazard type combination. It combines five weighted components:
- Cascade probability (30%) — likelihood of secondary hazards
- Return period (25%) — exceedance probability from historical baselines
- Seasonal pattern (20%) — monthly hazard frequency analysis
- Trend anomaly (15%) — deviation from 90-day rolling baseline
- News velocity (10%) — GDELT and Google News coverage acceleration
Five risk levels: critical (80–100), high (60–79), elevated (40–59), moderate (20–39), low (0–19). Full methodology →
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