Calamity Forecast Index
7-day multi-hazard risk assessment for every country. Updated every 5 minutes from 250 scientific sources.
Last updated: Jul 13, 2026, 5:26 PM
Top Countries at Risk
| Country | CFI Score | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| 🇧🇼 Botswana | 87 | critical |
| 🇳🇦 Namibia | 83 | critical |
| 🇲🇿 Mozambique | 82 | critical |
| 🇦🇴 Angola | 79 | high |
| 🇿🇲 Zambia | 79 | high |
| 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea | 79 | high |
| 🇲🇬 Madagascar | 77 | high |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 77 | high |
| 🇨🇩 DR Congo | 76 | high |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 76 | high |
Methodology
The Calamity Forecast Index (CFI) is a deterministic 0–100 risk assessment score computed for every country × hazard type combination. It combines five weighted components:
- Cascade probability (30%) — likelihood of secondary hazards
- Return period (25%) — exceedance probability from historical baselines
- Seasonal pattern (20%) — monthly hazard frequency analysis
- Trend anomaly (15%) — deviation from 90-day rolling baseline
- News velocity (10%) — GDELT and Google News coverage acceleration
Five risk levels: critical (80–100), high (60–79), elevated (40–59), moderate (20–39), low (0–19). Full methodology →
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