Calamity Forecast Index
7-day multi-hazard risk assessment for every country. Updated every 5 minutes from 250 scientific sources.
Last updated: Apr 13, 2026, 10:45 PM
Top Countries at Risk
| Country | CFI Score | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| 🇩🇪 Germany | 46 | elevated |
| 🇧🇪 Belgium | 46 | elevated |
| 🇲🇲 Myanmar | 46 | elevated |
| 🇦🇹 Austria | 45 | elevated |
| 🇺🇸 United States | 44 | elevated |
| 🇳🇱 Netherlands | 43 | elevated |
| 🇬🇲 GM | 43 | elevated |
| 🇮🇳 India | 42 | elevated |
| 🇩🇰 Denmark | 42 | elevated |
| 🇺🇬 Uganda | 42 | elevated |
Methodology
The Calamity Forecast Index (CFI) is a deterministic 0–100 risk assessment score computed for every country × hazard type combination. It combines five weighted components:
- Cascade probability (30%) — likelihood of secondary hazards
- Return period (25%) — exceedance probability from historical baselines
- Seasonal pattern (20%) — monthly hazard frequency analysis
- Trend anomaly (15%) — deviation from 90-day rolling baseline
- News velocity (10%) — GDELT and Google News coverage acceleration
Five risk levels: critical (80–100), high (60–79), elevated (40–59), moderate (20–39), low (0–19). Full methodology →
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