Calamity Forecast Index
7-day multi-hazard risk assessment for every country. Updated every 5 minutes from 250 scientific sources.
Last updated: Jun 18, 2026, 5:26 AM
Top Countries at Risk
| Country | CFI Score | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| 🇷🇼 Rwanda | 85 | critical |
| 🇺🇬 Uganda | 82 | critical |
| 🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea | 81 | critical |
| 🇹🇷 Turkey | 81 | critical |
| 🇧🇼 Botswana | 81 | critical |
| 🇨🇬 Congo | 80 | critical |
| 🇲🇼 Malawi | 80 | critical |
| 🇿🇲 Zambia | 79 | high |
| 🇹🇿 Tanzania | 79 | high |
| 🇧🇮 Burundi | 79 | high |
Methodology
The Calamity Forecast Index (CFI) is a deterministic 0–100 risk assessment score computed for every country × hazard type combination. It combines five weighted components:
- Cascade probability (30%) — likelihood of secondary hazards
- Return period (25%) — exceedance probability from historical baselines
- Seasonal pattern (20%) — monthly hazard frequency analysis
- Trend anomaly (15%) — deviation from 90-day rolling baseline
- News velocity (10%) — GDELT and Google News coverage acceleration
Five risk levels: critical (80–100), high (60–79), elevated (40–59), moderate (20–39), low (0–19). Full methodology →
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