Calamity
CriticalWildfiresCalamity Score: 57

Wildfires in South Africa

MtubatubaSouth AfricaNASA FIRMS (VIIRS)

Recorded by satellite 60 days ago.

A thermal anomaly is a snapshot of one satellite pass, not a record of a fire’s life: we cannot say whether it kept burning after that pass.

It is the strongest of the 12 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 19 May 2026. The last comparable one was on 2 July 2026. One more was recorded here in the fortnight before it.

What the source measured

NASA FIRMS (VIIRS) reported 24 fire pixels with a combined fire radiative power of 653 MW, at nominal confidence, 34 km from Mtubatuba.

The 24 pixels cover about 3.4 km² — that is the footprint of the detection grid at 375 m resolution, not an estimate of how much land burned.

FIRMS does not report burned area, and neither do we.

An estimated 692 people live within 35 km of this point.

Wind from N at 24 km/h at 09:00 UTC, according to MET Norway.

Nearby, since 19 May 2026

How we know

One source: NASA FIRMS (VIIRS). Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.

Our own score for this event is 57 out of 100, at 84 % confidence.

The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.

Wind: MET Norway Locationforecast, CC BY 4.0.

Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.

Under rules v1–v3, Critical for a wildfire measured only the radiative power the satellite saw, not the people near it; since v4 (1 September 2026) it also requires exposed population. This page keeps the word it was published with.

Event Data

TypeWildfires
SeverityCritical
Calamity Score (ours)57 / 100
Our confidence84%
Coordinates-28.1689, 32.3830
Nearest CityMtubatuba (34 km)
Population Exposed692 within 35 km
Impact Tierminor
Timestamp2026-07-03T11:45:00.000Z
Sourcehttps://firms.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/map/#d:24hrs;@32.383,-28.169,9z

Score Breakdown

80
intensity
10
population
70
cascading
80
historical

Technical Details

Brightness345.73
Frp652.71
PixelCount24
Confidencenominal

Cascade Risks

air quality emergency

Safety Information

If a wildfire is approaching: follow evacuation orders immediately. Do not wait to see the fire. Close all windows and doors, remove combustible materials from around your home, and have an emergency go-bag ready. Air quality can deteriorate rapidly even at distance from the fire front — monitor local air quality advisories.

Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.

This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.

Want to know when something happens in this area?

In the news nearby

A list of links found by GDELT for this place and this hazard in the last seven days. External, not ours: we have not read them and do not vouch for them.

GDELT did not answer when this page was rendered, so no news is listed.

GDELT Project · gdeltproject.org

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Calamity.live data shows a fire event with CalamityScore 57/100 (South Africa), based on data from firms. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 185 scientific monitoring sources.