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Rating

South Africa risk rating

Activity gradeAindex 17.0/100
Operational statusGreen
Last updated1m ago

Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2

Computed: 2026-10-20 00:18:57 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-20 02:18:57 UTC

Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits

state:
partial
missing Country:
unassessed
country Limit:
100
forecast:
assessed
population Metric:
urban event exposures not unique people

The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.

Rating components

Summed event intensity1818.2/100
Scenario weight00.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI32.7/100
CFI activity proxy6261.5/100

Recorded hazard contributions

Fire

Mean event index: 46/100 · Eligible records: 2

Rating history

  1. DtoAindex 68 → 17Yellow → Green1m ago
    Country rating changed from D to A (score 68 → 17)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 18.2population component 93.6 → 2.7

    Country rating changed from D to A (score 68 → 17). Operational status changed from yellow to green. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributed. severity component 100.0 → 18.2. population component 93.6 → 2.7. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — ZA Detected: 2026-10-19T12:08:00.000Z CalamityScore: 48/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 26,780 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: ZA. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.

  2. BtoDindex 27 → 6822h ago
    Country rating changed from B to D (score 27 → 68)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 42.8 → 100.0population component 1.9 → 93.6
  3. DtoBindex 66 → 271d ago
    Country rating changed from D to B (score 66 → 27)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 42.8population component 86.2 → 1.9
  4. CtoDindex 60 → 661d ago
    Country rating changed from C to D (score 60 → 66)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 87.8 → 100.0population component 76.8 → 86.2
  5. BtoCindex 25 → 601d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 25 → 60)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 39.4 → 87.8population component 0.1 → 76.8
  6. CtoBindex 50 → 252d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 50 → 25)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributedseverity component 100.0 → 39.4population component 6.1 → 0.1
  7. BtoCindex 36 → 502d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 36 → 50)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 65.2 → 100.0population component 2.1 → 6.1
  8. BtoBindex 30 → 362d ago
    Activity score changed from 30 to 36Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 49.2 → 65.2population component 7.5 → 2.1
  9. AtoBindex 20 → 30Green → Yellow2d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 20 → 30)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 27.2 → 49.2population component 0.3 → 7.5
  10. BtoAindex 30 → 20Yellow → Green2d ago
    Country rating changed from B to A (score 30 → 20)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 54); cause of change not attributedseverity component 49.2 → 27.2population component 7.5 → 0.3
  11. BtoBindex 25 → 302d ago
    Activity score changed from 25 to 30Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 37.4 → 49.2population component 5.4 → 7.5
  12. CtoBindex 54 → 253d ago
    Country rating changed from C to B (score 54 → 25)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 79.8 → 37.4population component 63.3 → 5.4
  13. BtoCindex 37 → 543d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 37 → 54)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 55); cause of change not attributedseverity component 45.6 → 79.8population component 49.0 → 63.3
  14. BtoBindex 28 → 37Green → Yellow3d ago
    Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 50); cause of change not attributedseverity component 24.6 → 45.6population component 45.7 → 49.0
  15. AtoBindex 15 → 283d ago
    Country rating changed from A to B (score 15 → 28)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 14.2 → 24.6population component 0.8 → 45.7
  16. CtoAindex 51 → 15Yellow → Green3d ago
    Country rating changed from C to A (score 51 → 15)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 36); cause of change not attributedseverity component 53.2 → 14.2population component 100.0 → 0.8
  17. CtoCindex 44 → 514d ago
    Activity score changed from 44 to 51Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 35.8 → 53.2
  18. BtoCindex 22 → 44Green → Yellow4d ago
    Country rating changed from B to C (score 22 → 44)Operational status changed from green to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 9.6 → 35.8population component 42.8 → 100.0
  19. DtoBindex 62 → 22Yellow → Green4d ago
    Country rating changed from D to B (score 62 → 22)Operational status changed from yellow to greenCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 48); cause of change not attributedseverity component 92.8 → 9.6population component 80.6 → 42.8
  20. CtoDindex 45 → 625d ago
    Country rating changed from C to D (score 45 → 62)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 78.0 → 92.8population component 22.2 → 80.6
Forecast for South AfricaActive events in South Africa