Rating
South Africa risk rating
Activity gradeCindex 54.0/100
Operational statusOrange
Last updated6m ago
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-09 01:03:15 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-09 03:03:15 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Summed event intensity46.2/100
Scenario weight100.0/100
Cumulative urban PEI8.3/100
CFI activity proxy57.8/100
Recorded hazard contributions
Fire
Mean event index: 58/100 · Eligible records: 4
Rating history
- EtoCindex 83 → 5338m agoCountry rating changed from E to C (score 83 → 53)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 96.6 → 44.6population component 52.9 → 8.2forecast component 58.5 → 57.8
Country rating changed from E to C (score 83 → 53). Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed. severity component 96.6 → 44.6. population component 52.9 → 8.2. forecast component 58.5 → 57.8. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — ZA Detected: 2026-10-08T12:14:00.000Z CalamityScore: 62/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 25,341 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: ZA. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- DtoEindex 68 → 8310h agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 68 → 83)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributed3 new cascade alert(s)severity component 61.4 → 96.6population component 48.7 → 52.9
- DtoDindex 63 → 6811h agoActivity score changed from 63 to 68Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 49.6 → 61.4population component 45.8 → 48.7forecast component 57.8 → 58.5
- CtoDindex 49 → 6323h agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 49 → 63)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 37.2 → 49.6population component 2.1 → 45.8forecast component 56.3 → 57.8
- DtoCindex 75 → 491d agoCountry rating changed from D to C (score 75 → 49)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 74.8 → 37.2population component 55.3 → 2.1forecast component 58.5 → 56.3
- DtoDindex 64 → 751d agoActivity score changed from 64 to 75Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)severity component 49.6 → 74.8population component 51.0 → 55.3forecast component 57.8 → 58.5
- CtoDindex 58 → 641d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 58 → 64)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 35.8 → 49.6population component 48.9 → 51.0forecast component 57.0 → 57.8
- BtoCindex 31 → 581d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 31 → 58)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)severity component 12.8 → 35.8cascade component 70.0 → 100.0population component 0.7 → 48.9forecast component 54.8 → 57.0
- DtoBindex 61 → 312d agoCountry rating changed from D to B (score 61 → 31)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 64); cause of change not attributedseverity component 61.2 → 12.8cascade component 100.0 → 70.0population component 14.2 → 0.7forecast component 59.3 → 54.8
- CtoDindex 42 → 612d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 42 → 61)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 69); cause of change not attributed3 new cascade alert(s)severity component 24.8 → 61.2cascade component 90.0 → 100.0population component 5.4 → 14.2forecast component 56.3 → 59.3
- CtoCindex 48 → 423d agoActivity score changed from 48 to 42Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 67); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.4 → 24.8cascade component 100.0 → 90.0population component 4.7 → 5.4forecast component 57.0 → 56.3
- BtoCindex 40 → 483d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 40 → 48)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 21.6 → 34.4cascade component 90.0 → 100.0population component 1.0 → 4.7forecast component 56.3 → 57.0
- BtoBindex 31 → 403d agoActivity score changed from 31 to 40Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 11.6 → 21.6cascade component 70.0 → 90.0population component 1.0 → 1.0forecast component 54.8 → 56.3
- DtoBindex 62 → 314d agoCountry rating changed from D to B (score 62 → 31)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributedseverity component 37.2 → 11.6cascade component 100.0 → 70.0population component 68.2 → 1.0forecast component 57.0 → 54.8
- CtoDindex 57 → 624d agoCountry rating changed from C to D (score 57 → 62)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 34.6 → 37.2population component 48.0 → 68.2
- CtoCindex 42 → 574d agoActivity score changed from 42 to 57Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)severity component 19.6 → 34.6cascade component 70.0 → 100.0population component 43.6 → 48.0forecast component 54.8 → 57.0
- CtoCindex 47 → 424d agoActivity score changed from 47 to 42Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 28.8 → 19.6population component 50.5 → 43.6
- CtoCindex 42 → 474d agoActivity score changed from 42 to 47Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 18.2 → 28.8population component 43.6 → 50.5
- BtoCindex 39 → 424d agoCountry rating changed from B to C (score 39 → 42)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributedseverity component 12.4 → 18.2
- AtoBindex 7 → 394d agoCountry rating changed from A to B (score 7 → 39)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 62); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)severity component 8.6 → 12.4cascade component 0.0 → 70.0population component 0.0 → 43.6forecast component 24.0 → 54.8