This alert expired on 16 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 3rd strongest of the 31 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 2 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Special Marine Warning issued May 16 at 3:08PM EDT until May 16 at 3:30PM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY
An estimated 422,056 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- June 17, 2026 · score 37 · 10.8 km
- June 26, 2026 · score 48 · 14.5 km
- June 11, 2026 · score 34 · 19.3 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 80 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 80% |
| Coordinates | 42.6075, -79.2356 |
| Nearest City | Port Colborne (33 km) |
| Population Exposed | 422.1K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-05-16T19:08:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f9f511586dac584dae59d9f4a757d4a032d5bf64.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Special Marine Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor; Ripley to Dunkirk NY; Dunkirk to Buffalo NY; Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border |
| Headline | Special Marine Warning issued May 16 at 3:08PM EDT until May 16 at 3:30PM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY |
| Expires | 2026-05-16T15:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Buffalo NY |
| HasExactCoords | true |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens in this area?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 43/100 (Canada), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 185 scientific monitoring sources.