Tornado — continued active threat area
Right now
The most recent data we hold from Environment and Climate Change Canada arrived 29 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
7 other detections within 20 km in the last 24 hours, the nearest 3 km from here.
This page covers the record dated 9 October 2026. Browse recent observations in this area:
Official warning
This warning has expired. Its original text remains below.
Highest level recorded: Extreme.
Level in this notice: Extreme.
Environment Canada
red warning - tornado - in effect
At 11:19 a.m. EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado, is located over Bear Lake. This severe thunderstorm is moving southeast at 45 km/h. Destructive winds, damaging hail and flooding rainfall are possible.
Locations and nearby areas that could be impacted include: Bear Lake, Ilfracombe
###
This is a very dangerous and potentially life-threatening situation.
Tornado warnings are issued when a thunderstorm is producing or is likely to produce a tornado.
Take cover immediately in a basement, interior room, or a sturdy shelter when threatening weather approaches. If no shelter is available, lie in a low spot and protect your head from flying debris. If you are out on the water when threatening weather approaches, return to shore and seek shelter, if possible, or move directly away from the path of the tornado. Otherwise, wear your lifejacket, lie face down and protect your head.
Emergency Management Ontario recommends that you take cover immediately if threatening weather approaches.
This alert expired on 9 October 2026 at 16:18 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 8 recorded within 20 km of this point since 9 October 2026 — 2 others scored the same. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 5 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
Environment and Climate Change Canada reported: At 11:19 a.m. EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado, is located over Bear Lake. This severe thunderstorm is moving southeast at 45 km/h. Destructive winds, damaging hail and flooding rainfall are possible. Locations and nearby areas that could be impacted include: Bear Lake, Ilfracombe ### This is a very dangerous and potentially life-threatening situation. Tornado warnings are issued when a thunderstorm is producing or is likely to produce a tornado.
Urban PEI: 35,826 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
How we know
One source: Environment and Climate Change Canada. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 48 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Event data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Critical |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 48 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.64/1 |
| Coordinates | 45.4272, -79.5662 |
| Nearest city | Huntsville (29 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 35.8K within 50 km |
| Impact tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-10-09T15:19:00.000Z |
| Source | https://dd.weather.gc.ca/today/alerts/cap/20261009/LAND/15/T_ONCN00_C_LAND_202610091519_1624031087.cap |
| Licence | ECCC Data Services End-use Licence 2.1.1 · Environment and Climate Change Canada · Grouped by area and warning; CAP severity mapped; map location derived from alert geometry. Original warning text preserved. |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: cap_ca_eccc. Occurrence: 2026-10-09T15:19:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-10-09T15:28:28.899Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score breakdown
Technical details
| Event | tornado |
| AreaDesc | continued active threat area |
| Geocodes | [{"name":"layer:EC-MSC-SMC:DLC:1.1","value":"continued"},{"name":"profile:CAP-CP:Location:0.3","value":"3549012"},{"name":"profile:CAP-CP:Location:0.3","value":"3549003"}] |
| Onset | 2026-10-09T15:19:00-00:00 |
| Effective | 2026-10-09T15:19:56-00:00 |
| Expires | 2026-10-09T16:18:56-00:00 |
| TimeBasis | onset |
| LocalDay | 20261009 |
| CapTimeZone | America/Toronto |
| CapDayBasis | area-centroid-timezone |
| CapSeverity | Extreme |
| DailyPeakCapSeverity | Extreme |
| CapUrgency | Immediate |
| CapCertainty | Observed |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| Headline | red warning - tornado - in effect |
| Description | At 11:19 a.m. EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado, is located over Bear Lake. This severe thunderstorm is moving southeast at 45 km/h. Destructive winds, damaging hail and flooding rainfall are possible. Locations and nearby areas that could be impacted include: Bear Lake, Ilfracombe ### This is a very dangerous and potentially life-threatening situation. Tornado warnings are issued when a thunderstorm is producing or is likely to produce a tornado. |
| Instruction | Take cover immediately in a basement, interior room, or a sturdy shelter when threatening weather approaches. If no shelter is available, lie in a low spot and protect your head from flying debris. If you are out on the water when threatening weather approaches, return to shore and seek shelter, if possible, or move directly away from the path of the tornado. Otherwise, wear your lifejacket, lie face down and protect your head. Emergency Management Ontario recommends that you take cover immediately if threatening weather approaches. |
| SenderName | Environment Canada |
Safety information
What to do in a tornado
Three things first, then what to do before, during and after. From FEMA’s Ready.gov and the US National Weather Service.
For this reportSevere Weather · Huntsville
Go to the lowest, innermost room
A basement or a storm shelter; otherwise an inner room without windows on the lowest floor. Protect your head and neck.
Ready.govLeave a mobile home
It gives no protection: go to a sturdy building or a shelter before the tornado arrives.
Ready.govOutdoors or in a car
Find the strongest shelter you can. If there is none, lie flat in a low place and cover your head. Never under a bridge.
Ready.gov
Before, during, after. Here it is “after”.
Before · When tornadoes are possible
Get the warnings
Phone alerts and weather radio, day and night.
Choose your safe room
Lowest floor, inner, no windows; everyone at home should know it.
Know the signs
A rotating cloud, a cloud of debris, a loud roar like a train.
Ready.gov (FEMA)
During · When a warning is issued
Go now
To your safe room, without waiting to see it.
Cover up
Arms over head and neck; blankets or a mattress over you.
Ready.gov (FEMA)
After · When it has passed
Keep away from fallen lines
And from damaged buildings.
Clean up protected
Sturdy shoes, gloves, a mask.
Messages, not calls
Keep lines free for emergencies.
Ready.gov (FEMA)
Questions people ask
What is the difference between a tornado watch and a warning?
A watch means tornadoes are possible: be ready. A warning means one has been seen or detected on radar: take shelter now. Source: US National Weather Service.
Should I open the windows?
No. It does not help, and it wastes time you need to take shelter. Source: US National Weather Service.
Is an overpass a good shelter?
No. Wind speeds up under it and carries debris. Source: Ready.gov (FEMA).
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.