Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 61 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
This alert expired on 15 September 2026 at 06:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued September 14 at 9:11PM MST until September 14 at 11:30PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ
Urban PEI: 813,690 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
How we know
3 recorded sources include NOAA; independence is not established by this count.
Our own score for this event is 41 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 41 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.92/1 |
| Coordinates | 32.1105, -110.6740 |
| Nearest City | Tanque Verde (17 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 813.7K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-15T04:11:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.10fc36cf0a0868222b96a6dfe6055fc189db3e54.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-15T04:11:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-15T04:19:52.050Z. Material modification: 2026-09-15T04:36:02.351Z.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2026-09-15T05:08:11.187Z · data_change
Index 41 → 41; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T05:02:48.636Z · data_change
Index 41 → 41; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T04:57:27.081Z · data_change
Index 41 → 41; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T04:52:05.707Z · data_change
Index 41 → 41; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T04:41:22.808Z · data_change
Index 41 → 41; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T04:36:02.351Z · data_change
Index 41 → 41; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-15T04:25:20.956Z · data_change
Index 41 → 41; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Pima, AZ; Cochise, AZ |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued September 14 at 9:11PM MST until September 14 at 11:30PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ |
| Expires | 2026-09-14T23:30:00-07:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Tucson AZ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.10fc36cf0a0868222b96a6dfe6055fc189db3e54.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ec498734b1a01fcbf712326ae339c0c5b65a9c99.001.1"] |
| Spc ReportType | wind |
| Spc Speed | 60 |
| Spc Location | 7 ENE Tucson |
| Spc County | Pima |
| Spc State | AZ |
| Spc Comments | Measured wind gust of 60 mph. (TWC) |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 4 ENE Tucson |
| Iem County | Pima |
| Iem State | AZ |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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