Rating
United States risk rating
Current assessment · Model activity-rating-2
Computed: 2026-10-19 01:38:47 UTC · Valid until: 2026-10-19 03:38:47 UTC
Coverage is selective. Missing or expired assessments do not mean zero hazard. Scores are heuristic indices, not calibrated probabilities. Model cards and limits
- state:
- partial
- missing Country:
- unassessed
- country Limit:
- 100
- forecast:
- assessed
- population Metric:
- urban event exposures not unique people
The rating is a composite index of reported activity; it does not measure structural vulnerability or coping capacity. It shares inputs with the Calamity Forecast Index. Neither index is a calibrated event probability. Model cards and formulas.
Rating components
Recorded hazard contributions
Mean event index: 46/100 · Eligible records: 3
Mean event index: 44/100 · Eligible records: 10
Mean event index: 29/100 · Eligible records: 6
Mean event index: 18/100 · Eligible records: 1
Rating history
- DtoEindex 67 → 89Yellow → Orange1d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 67 → 89)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributed4 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 0.0 → 92.0forecast component 46.0 → 37.0
Country rating changed from D to E (score 67 → 89). Operational status changed from yellow to orange. Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributed. 4 new cascade alert(s). cascade component 0.0 → 92.0. forecast component 46.0 → 37.0. Context: EVENT: Extended satellite heat detection — US Detected: 2026-10-17T09:26:00.000Z CalamityScore: 68/100 Severity: medium URBAN EXPOSURE INDEX: 695,540 weighted city population units; not unique people or a census of the affected area CONTEXT: Country: US. Consult current official local emergency instructions. This automated index does not issue evacuation orders. No scenario matched the configured rules; this does not establish absence of risk.
- DtoDindex 67 → 67Orange → Yellow1d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributed
- DtoDindex 74 → 671d agoActivity score changed from 74 to 67Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedcascade component 32.0 → 0.0forecast component 40.5 → 46.0
- DtoDindex 79 → 741d agoActivity score changed from 79 to 74Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedcascade component 52.0 → 32.0forecast component 41.1 → 40.5
- EtoDindex 84 → 791d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 84 → 79)Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedcascade component 72.0 → 52.0forecast component 37.5 → 41.1
- DtoEindex 66 → 84Yellow → Orange1d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 66 → 84)Operational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributed3 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 0.0 → 72.0forecast component 39.0 → 37.5
- DtoDindex 74 → 66Orange → Yellow2d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedcascade component 32.0 → 0.0forecast component 36.8 → 39.0
- DtoDindex 79 → 742d agoActivity score changed from 79 to 74Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributedcascade component 52.0 → 32.0forecast component 37.3 → 36.8
- DtoDindex 74 → 792d agoActivity score changed from 74 to 79Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 32.0 → 52.0forecast component 36.8 → 37.3
- DtoDindex 66 → 742d agoActivity score changed from 66 to 74Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 68); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 0.0 → 32.0forecast component 39.0 → 36.8
- DtoDindex 66 → 66Yellow → Orange2d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributed
- EtoDindex 84 → 66Orange → Yellow2d agoCountry rating changed from E to D (score 84 → 66)Operational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedcascade component 72.0 → 0.0forecast component 37.5 → 39.0
- EtoEindex 91 → 842d agoActivity score changed from 91 to 84Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 59); cause of change not attributedcascade component 100.0 → 72.0forecast component 42.0 → 37.5
- EtoEindex 84 → 914d agoActivity score changed from 84 to 91Current dominant event: Thunderstorm wind gust (63 MPH) — 2 SE Bonner Springs, Johnson Co., KS (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributed2 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 72.0 → 100.0forecast component 41.1 → 42.0
- DtoEindex 79 → 844d agoCountry rating changed from D to E (score 79 → 84)Current dominant event: Thunderstorm wind gust (63 MPH) — 2 SE Bonner Springs, Johnson Co., KS (CalamityScore 46); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 52.0 → 72.0forecast component 40.8 → 41.1
- DtoDindex 74 → 794d agoActivity score changed from 74 to 79Current dominant event: Thunderstorm wind gust (75 MPH) — 3 E Waldron, Platte Co., MO (CalamityScore 58); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 32.0 → 52.0forecast component 40.5 → 40.8
- DtoDindex 67 → 744d agoActivity score changed from 67 to 74Current dominant event: Severe Wind — MO (CalamityScore 53); cause of change not attributed1 new cascade alert(s)cascade component 0.0 → 32.0forecast component 46.0 → 40.5
- DtoDindex 65 → 67Yellow → Orange5d agoOperational status changed from yellow to orangeCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 94.0 → 100.0
- DtoDindex 68 → 65Orange → Yellow5d agoOperational status changed from orange to yellowCurrent dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 63.2 → 94.0cascade component 65.0 → 0.0forecast component 42.3 → 46.0
- DtoDindex 74 → 685d agoActivity score changed from 74 to 68Current dominant event: Extended satellite heat detection (CalamityScore 57); cause of change not attributedseverity component 66.0 → 63.2cascade component 85.0 → 65.0forecast component 39.4 → 42.3