Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 30 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 17 July 2026 at 00:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 19th strongest of the 107 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 13 April 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 9 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued July 16 at 3:15PM MST until July 16 at 5:00PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ
Urban PEI: 43,355 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 13 April 2026
- June 24, 2026 · score 34 · 11.0 km
- September 14, 2026 · score 32 · 15.8 km
- July 10, 2026 · score 43 · 18.0 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.80/1 |
| Coordinates | 31.5432, -110.1515 |
| Nearest City | Sierra Vista (14 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 43.4K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-16T22:15:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Flash Flood Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.dd284c8e3539a8ee8172b15b6b5c68c2 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-16T22:15:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-16T22:29:31.922Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Cochise, AZ; Santa Cruz, AZ; Cochise, AZ; Santa Cruz, AZ |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued July 16 at 3:15PM MST until July 16 at 5:00PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ |
| Expires | 2026-07-16T17:00:00-07:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Tucson AZ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 6 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.dd284c8e3539a8ee8172b15b6b5c68c230652b1a.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.be73c785f1239338c0f6e7abc6b5c63b98101217.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f6fa7bf475c243627bb9e5d80a735e240e865157.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0ce165c4cc322c59af2004e0fa0d4b36ffee22ed.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.13058fe76be5cb2982b4a1cfaa55fdb469f82ac9.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.caed69195593339660aed68af1a1f373663d3e1a.001.1"] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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