Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 1 minute ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
One other detection within 20 km in the last 24 hours, 16 km from here.
This alert is in force until 30 September 2026, 04:30 UTC.
It is the 2nd strongest of the 5 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 14 July 2026. The last comparable one was on 29 September 2026. 4 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued September 29 at 5:37PM MST until September 29 at 9:30PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ
Nearby, since 14 July 2026
- August 30, 2026 · 9.0 km
- September 29, 2026 · score 28 · 15.9 km
- July 14, 2026 · 16.9 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 16 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 16 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.60/1 |
| Coordinates | 32.8811, -110.5863 |
| Nearest City | Oro Valley (65 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 0 within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | minor |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-30T00:37:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.84c970bdf52583efef2d73b5d5c59f5f844ea49b.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-30T00:37:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-29T22:20:29.053Z. Material modification: 2026-09-30T01:19:08.484Z.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2026-09-30T00:47:05.362Z · data_change
Index 37 → 16.
2026-09-30T00:31:09.497Z · data_change
Index 16 → 37.
18 retained revisions changed source fields this page does not show; the index, severity and version stayed the same.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| MessageId | urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.84c970bdf52583efef2d73b5d5c59f5f844ea49b.001.1 |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Graham, AZ; Greenlee, AZ; Cochise, AZ; Cochise, AZ; Graham, AZ and 3 more areas |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued September 29 at 5:37PM MST until September 29 at 9:30PM MST by NWS Tucson AZ |
| Expires | 2026-09-29T21:30:00-07:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Tucson AZ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 9 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.30002bda7c14d7aecd5295829558dbc7ab05001d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.48a87e5c9ed32a65a0a50cc3312d2703ca58a606.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e552d99325ad0b7c0e899e2bbef918ececc2d190.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.61aefc9662732eff0b4a22ce23b274196e233793.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7ad856de398b796e2ddac4a9f9a8af26cf5bd5a5.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3d8f41591b869e6c642f20d83978c0ce0f768273.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.2311a3281dbacaa52575dee14c2e1b13e18417a2.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0567b8103680da42757503dfa4ed3f46520e2495.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b298e1ae41d68a722adadc09991ad33b5b449ca8.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | Heavy rain |
| Iem LsrCode | R |
| Iem LsrType | RAIN |
| Iem Magnitude | 4.29 |
| Iem Unit | Inch |
| Iem City | 4 WNW Summerhaven |
| Iem County | Pima |
| Iem State | AZ |
| Iem Wfo | TWC |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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