Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 28 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
6 other detections within 20 km in the last 24 hours, the nearest 14 km from here.
This alert is in force until 30 September 2026, 13:15 UTC.
It is the 2nd strongest of the 8 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 18 April 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 3 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued September 30 at 5:51AM CDT until September 30 at 8:15AM CDT by NWS Lubbock TX
Urban PEI: 15,021 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 18 April 2026
- July 2, 2026 · 8.9 km
- July 5, 2026 · 11.0 km
- July 1, 2026 · 11.3 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 28 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 28 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.81/1 |
| Coordinates | 34.8270, -102.4008 |
| Nearest City | Hereford (1 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 15.0K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-30T10:51:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.41bdc2ab64f2131e89f9f99fae90f21244039ac7.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-30T10:51:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-30T10:40:39.548Z. Material modification: 2026-09-30T10:56:56.325Z.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2 retained revisions changed source fields this page does not show; the index, severity and version stayed the same.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| MessageId | urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.41bdc2ab64f2131e89f9f99fae90f21244039ac7.001.1 |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Castro, TX; Curry, NM; Quay, NM; Roosevelt, NM; Potter, TX; Randall, TX and 5 more areas |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued September 30 at 5:51AM CDT until September 30 at 8:15AM CDT by NWS Lubbock TX |
| Expires | 2026-09-30T08:15:00-05:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Lubbock TX |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 9 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.63aa5301c12220cb81f44ff43dd9da2d796d88fe.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.79996a1a609682c7ce8d3c3cb85de73f57507011.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.66ef20045282f4710c17b40787b150e5af95a9e4.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1fd33dff4d72ace11dd323a25febe4c7e439f521.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e61d42bb15dbf93ee847db2ce8f5ba1ab160f1b2.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.70aa9db0538ddf1deeec9262b76eb15143016ec7.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c837b09e467718298beefe5e7b4a0ecb1a28d2b6.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6dc17c326a5ff29a407e34c7400119756fd26a00.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.658bb53001e728336a30b28689824276c5989e50.001.1"] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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