Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 3 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
One other detection within 20 km in the last 24 hours, 15 km from here.
This alert expired on 1 October 2026 at 12:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is one of only 4 we have recorded within 20 km of this point since 15 April 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 3 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued October 1 at 4:55AM CDT until October 1 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Fort Worth TX
Urban PEI: 25,176 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 15 April 2026
- August 8, 2026 · 8.8 km
- June 6, 2026 · 14.6 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 28 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 28 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.80/1 |
| Coordinates | 34.3685, -97.2892 |
| Nearest City | Ardmore (26 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 25.2K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-10-01T09:55:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.8af626ade0bec068f0ba3727827767035494e4be.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-10-01T09:55:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-10-01T09:41:18.532Z. Material modification: 2026-10-01T10:02:54.942Z.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2 retained revisions changed source fields this page does not show; the index, severity and version stayed the same.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| MessageId | urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8af626ade0bec068f0ba3727827767035494e4be.001.1 |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Cooke, TX; Montague, TX; Carter, OK; Johnston, OK; Love, OK; Marshall, OK; Murray, OK; Archer, TX; Clay, TX and 4 more areas |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued October 1 at 4:55AM CDT until October 1 at 7:00AM CDT by NWS Fort Worth TX |
| Expires | 2026-10-01T07:00:00-05:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Fort Worth TX |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 7 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3120c37e0df6bb7a1e5ac0acdd6fd8c39ba8dfd7.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8d1f3be6b749290b9ca76b520e133c20d58292a3.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6875553ecc8761ae68e9be995c6cb8b2faa259a4.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.579b3383b385ea4b373f101f12c76db10541ce8d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b03a401b58ef50d68110bbafa4709796447bb4ba.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d59a76a4e13523a29ab3d0e935310b9b22702255.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.830514f6ed7be944c95ece6acd603fb55f9cf46a.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | Heavy rain |
| Iem LsrCode | R |
| Iem LsrType | RAIN |
| Iem Magnitude | 5.11 |
| Iem Unit | Inch |
| Iem City | 3 ENE Nocona |
| Iem County | Montague |
| Iem State | TX |
| Iem Wfo | FWD |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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