Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 31 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 30 September 2026 at 06:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 9 recorded within 20 km of this point since 24 June 2026 — 8 others scored the same. The last comparable one was on 25 September 2026. 8 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued September 29 at 10:16PM MDT until September 30 at 12:30AM MDT by NWS Midland/Odessa TX
Urban PEI: 48,544 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 24 June 2026
- September 24, 2026 · score 28 · 7.2 km
- June 24, 2026 · 14.7 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 28 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 28 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.80/1 |
| Coordinates | 33.7098, -104.4370 |
| Nearest City | Roswell (36 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 48.5K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-30T04:16:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.70d6cf3b867d76de7aad27223c8077f38831dbc3.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-30T04:16:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-30T00:30:58.229Z. Material modification: 2026-09-30T04:26:01.067Z.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2026-09-30T03:38:03.146Z · data_change
Index 16 → 28.
2026-09-30T03:32:45.125Z · data_change
Index 28 → 16.
2026-09-30T03:27:25.010Z · data_change
Index 16 → 28.
2026-09-30T02:49:43.640Z · data_change
Index 28 → 16.
2026-09-30T02:44:25.858Z · data_change
Index 16 → 28.
2026-09-30T02:33:50.027Z · data_change
Index 28 → 16.
14 retained revisions changed source fields this page does not show; the index, severity and version stayed the same.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| MessageId | urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.70d6cf3b867d76de7aad27223c8077f38831dbc3.001.1 |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Lea, NM; Lea, NM; Gaines, TX; Parmer, TX and 13 more areas |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued September 29 at 10:16PM MDT until September 30 at 12:30AM MDT by NWS Midland/Odessa TX |
| Expires | 2026-09-30T00:30:00-06:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Midland/Odessa TX |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 17 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d8b73308aedfdc0485219c5f74d61161f9a01ffe.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0cd4ac836332212d2e2037a6de144e4cbb29c9bb.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e7f316de17a6352cae3d9609f07ff1b3b1efbaa6.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4ab22365f9ef01d0b210e0b71dd8a9cb44ef52ff.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a1fd9318293e3b92b5e3456e3b9518a7c0f18424.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1380c56cb9e18cc1a2eb8774bcf8c4c11208d05b.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0651c91cf3dc98a8cffe08ab42ed4ea375582df6.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.41aca04a7f292097bec01338e6348c65de4c25f2.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.6f5e050effa195c9c0c2352f60fc86f9335a2761.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.819cae0ef1084279cd593b8604d8ae60ae25b6dc.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d4bb75550a2b760f33cf942f3b446f12b8019f91.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d8774b670dd457f6d8b1606561474cec49b65009.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7269ac0ebc42ac15a3d145b02a2e68519df0fd62.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a55647161285e9350ac3d997e2cab4ec4a0b1867.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.de3682e44fa60eef1258f48e81ac04c544b64b3f.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5f910f2442fb8b943d0aa17013eecd16907962d6.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.66cb95f92c27174ce7fff9e0534d99e2fac52718.001.1"] |
| Spc ReportType | wind |
| Spc Speed | 67 |
| Spc Location | 3 W Midway |
| Spc County | Chaves |
| Spc State | NM |
| Spc Comments | ASOS station KROW Roswell Air Center. (ABQ) |
| Iem TypeSummary | Thunderstorm wind gust |
| Iem LsrCode | G |
| Iem LsrType | TSTM WND GST |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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