Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 7 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
One other detection within 20 km in the last 24 hours, <1 km from here.
This alert expired on 26 September 2026 at 08:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 21 recorded within 20 km of this point since 13 March 2026 — 20 others scored the same. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 19 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flood Warning issued September 25 at 9:14AM CDT until September 30 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Chicago IL
Urban PEI: 2,257,029 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 13 March 2026
- September 26, 2026 · score 46 · 0.0 km
- August 9, 2026 · 6.6 km
- September 25, 2026 · score 46 · 9.8 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 46 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 46 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.79/1 |
| Coordinates | 42.3921, -87.9336 |
| Nearest City | Gurnee (4 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 2.3M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-25T14:14:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.e74fe38c273b0bba1814a01038b588aa79958106.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-25T14:14:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-25T14:31:21.858Z. Material modification: 2026-09-26T01:13:15.482Z.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2026-09-26T01:18:31.588Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-26T01:13:15.482Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-26T01:02:46.106Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-26T00:52:14.585Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-26T00:25:55.933Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-25T23:48:46.416Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-25T23:21:59.098Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-25T23:11:14.165Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-25T23:05:50.789Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-25T22:49:37.942Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-25T22:33:33.059Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-25T22:06:44.021Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-25T21:34:33.801Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-25T21:18:27.851Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-25T21:07:18.190Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-25T20:35:51.686Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-25T20:19:25.924Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-25T19:30:58.872Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-25T18:42:02.360Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-25T18:36:35.079Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flood Warning |
| MessageId | urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e74fe38c273b0bba1814a01038b588aa79958106.001.1 |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Lake, IL |
| Headline | Flood Warning issued September 25 at 9:14AM CDT until September 30 at 7:00PM CDT by NWS Chicago IL |
| Expires | 2026-09-26T03:15:00-05:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Chicago IL |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8ff2165e0da55233b8995df679228eda56292898.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8ff2165e0da55233b8995df679228eda56292898.001.1"] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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