Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 62 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 18 July 2026 at 18:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 4th strongest of the 41 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 7 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 18 at 2:06PM EDT until July 18 at 2:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Urban PEI: 46,597 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- July 18, 2026 · score 34 · 2.4 km
- July 27, 2026 · score 34 · 9.7 km
- August 3, 2026 · score 34 · 10.1 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.80/1 |
| Coordinates | 37.6931, -78.2667 |
| Nearest City | Charlottesville (42 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 46.6K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-18T18:06:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.103ab6d3237638531ce5a8ae8a2f3851 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-18T18:06:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-18T18:09:36.736Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Frederick, MD; Clarke, VA; Frederick, VA; Berkeley, WV; Jefferson, WV; Culpeper, VA; Madison, VA; Orange, VA and 3 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 18 at 2:06PM EDT until July 18 at 2:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-07-18T14:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 6 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.103ab6d3237638531ce5a8ae8a2f3851cd360fef.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1796f09b4d847fe1555df348bdd508286897fb64.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.37bb021edd08dc99534aa2125f082e46dab7e03c.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.beecc646ceb5c9e8f53b352e663e5819c8b29550.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ce258af5260d021ff6f9ed6e064f0d77ac997df4.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3b2e7d028289b737c6d5bd67395804823588b862.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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