Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 23 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 18 July 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 3rd strongest of the 53 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 4 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 18 at 3:01PM EDT until July 18 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Urban PEI: 166,820 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- July 22, 2026 · score 67 · 5.5 km
- June 12, 2026 · score 43 · 9.5 km
- August 9, 2026 · score 43 · 9.8 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.80/1 |
| Coordinates | 37.6922, -78.8586 |
| Nearest City | Lynchburg (40 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 166.8K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-18T19:01:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1f87846f70e205d38ae8663d71687b81 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-18T19:01:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-18T19:06:11.231Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Orange, VA; Spotsylvania, VA; Stafford, VA; City of Fredericksburg, VA; Carroll, MD; Frederick, MD; Howard, MD; Montgomery, MD; Washington, MD; Loudoun, VA; Warren, NC and 11 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 18 at 3:01PM EDT until July 18 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-07-18T15:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 14 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1f87846f70e205d38ae8663d71687b81927a2e03.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.aeccd8a70db10eb61304300fba9a7009f0c9bcdd.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b14c909fa0585593e2b5f36b88877189ab18b028.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4dce590fa73d9fc380843b761b3ac040cfec8a0a.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.fc4450bcccdddf14341206882b969d1ba3e6c200.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ccc7a9543eab7364c7a9aba30f56b6a84cd39c23.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5ef49a390c366e255b3b90de727da05174f666aa.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.9acaecb06059cc5e65b92a8dc323d765bd581877.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.2ecb73d4ca9c1efcfd9078d5c31b923ffe1c3aa4.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.dd01a6b421540c7ea9607de4584cc751b9519801.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f99dd88fa73c83172c2b1ae4b1109f97e321839c.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.15fb0681b87a07bb337b881bcb40fbc1edf2ab62.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.31e31d5b7c2f5f09d9b907379b5872f13f6fb4c6.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.19f0e30383f3602dd518860094fc8368db33a64d.002.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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