This alert expired on 16 March 2026 at 17:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 4th strongest of the 124 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 7 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 16 at 1:05PM EDT until March 16 at 1:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 3,475,451 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- March 16, 2026 · score 52 · 0.0 km
- March 16, 2026 · score 52 · 2.7 km
- July 7, 2026 · score 52 · 5.8 km
How we know
Confirmed by 8 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 52 out of 100, at 88 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 52 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 88% |
| Coordinates | 38.6721, -77.3742 |
| Nearest City | Dale City (7 km) |
| Population Exposed | 3.5M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-16T17:05:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8f357e29d737bb5fabae6a8973f8ad07 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Culpeper, VA; Fauquier, VA; Orange, VA; Spotsylvania, VA; Stafford, VA; City of Fredericksburg, VA; Montgomery, MD; Arlington, VA; Fairfax, VA; Prince William, VA; City of Fairfax, VA; City of Falls Church, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 16 at 1:05PM EDT until March 16 at 1:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-03-16T13:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8f357e29d737bb5fabae6a8973f8ad07fff8bb7e.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1cb0823c4bc8876b175e5b63d0a1ed1ef2bf47d4.002.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 2 ENE Clarksburg |
| Iem County | Montgomery |
| Iem State | MD |
| Iem Wfo | LWX |
| Iem Remark | Wires down on the 11400 block of Hawkes Rd. |
| Google News RssFeed | weather |
| Google News SourceName | Secret DC |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_39.260_-77.230_1773676200000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1773676200000,"latitude":39.26,"longitude":-77.23},{"id":"iem_D_39.210_-77.420_1773674760000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1773674760000,"latitude":39.21,"longitude":-77.42},{"id":"iem_D_39.230_-77.260_1773675720000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1773675720000,"latitude":39.23,"longitude":-77.26},{"id":"iem_D_39.250_-77.240_1773676080000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1773676080000,"latitude":39.25,"longitude":-77.24},{"id":"gnews_weather_492686_155","source":"google_news","severity":"medium","severityValue":40,"timestamp":1773672660000,"latitude":38.9,"longitude":-77.04},{"id":"gnews_weather_492688_163","source":"google_news","severity":"medium","severityValue":40,"timestamp":1773678999000,"latitude":38.9,"longitude":-77.04},{"id":"gnews_weather_492688_167","source":"google_news","severity":"medium","severityValue":40,"timestamp":1773677605000,"latitude":38.9,"longitude":-77.04}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens near Dale City?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 52/100, near Dale City (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 185 scientific monitoring sources.