This alert expired on 16 March 2026 at 17:02 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 3rd strongest of the 63 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 2 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 16 at 12:55PM EDT until March 16 at 1:00PM EDT by NWS Blacksburg VA
An estimated 538,551 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- March 16, 2026 · score 43 · 4.0 km
- March 17, 2026 · score 48 · 6.6 km
- March 16, 2026 · score 48 · 6.6 km
How we know
Confirmed by 2 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 48 out of 100, at 82 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 48 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 82% |
| Coordinates | 38.4946, -77.6558 |
| Nearest City | Fredericksburg (28 km) |
| Population Exposed | 538.6K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-16T16:55:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.9916dc439abb8df0f14eb3e80879fb68 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Appomattox, VA; Buckingham, VA; Montgomery, MD; Arlington, VA; Fairfax, VA; Prince William, VA; City of Fairfax, VA; City of Falls Church, VA; City of Manassas, VA; City of Manassas Park, VA; Charles, MD; Culpeper, VA; Fauquier, VA; Orange, VA; Spotsylvania, VA; Stafford, VA; City of Fredericksburg, VA and 2 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 16 at 12:55PM EDT until March 16 at 1:00PM EDT by NWS Blacksburg VA |
| Expires | 2026-03-16T13:02:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Blacksburg VA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 5 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.9916dc439abb8df0f14eb3e80879fb68446fea46.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.2db496e417d2da86a2c10edde454ea8f5eeaf569.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.7e5c81f9ff3559e3104fd80dfddd14052365d6d6.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.57ebd17940a0a388d9264059148e63236c6367e0.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.107aac724d133158185122d2b98dd10ce5cda7ee.001.1"] |
| Spc ReportType | wind |
| Spc Speed | UNK |
| Spc Location | 1 N McMullen |
| Spc County | Greene |
| Spc State | VA |
| Spc Comments | A tree was down along South River Road and Entry Run Road. (LWX) |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"spc_wind_38.36_-78.46_51","source":"spc","severity":"medium","severityValue":45,"timestamp":1773670140000,"latitude":38.36,"longitude":-78.46}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens near Fredericksburg?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 48/100, near Fredericksburg (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 185 scientific monitoring sources.