This alert expired on 12 June 2026 at 20:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 20th strongest of the 57 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 3 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 12 at 4:18PM EDT until June 12 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 409,374 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- August 8, 2026 · score 43 · 4.8 km
- August 7, 2026 · score 43 · 5.0 km
- March 16, 2026 · score 43 · 8.3 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 80 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 80% |
| Coordinates | 38.5321, -77.7884 |
| Nearest City | Culpeper (20 km) |
| Population Exposed | 409.4K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-06-12T20:18:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.9b3059b8530a0cb3526c39b3edd0e28e |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Culpeper, VA; Fauquier, VA; Fauquier, VA; Prince William, VA; Spotsylvania, VA; Stafford, VA; City of Fredericksburg, VA and 1 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued June 12 at 4:18PM EDT until June 12 at 4:30PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-06-12T16:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 4 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.9b3059b8530a0cb3526c39b3edd0e28e225ca522.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.bf2ff8a5fc10058d9f990c7602a0aef7632bec7d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.9898db6282c1b26fe9c0b62257eb47fcb3aafcc5.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b75107ce7500b392e4a47a7a9aad8e97fbb5a65d.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 43/100, near Culpeper (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.