This alert expired on 21 July 2026 at 18:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 25th strongest of the 32 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 17 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 18 July 2026. 10 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 21 at 2:25PM EDT until July 21 at 2:45PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA
An estimated 64,466 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 17 March 2026
- July 7, 2026 · score 43 · 6.3 km
- July 18, 2026 · score 43 · 8.4 km
- June 22, 2026 · score 43 · 17.9 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 32 out of 100, at 80 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 32 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 80% |
| Coordinates | 38.0429, -77.2250 |
| Nearest City | Fredericksburg (35 km) |
| Population Exposed | 64.5K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-21T18:25:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.9e65997dac09427cac6615345a539014 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Caroline, VA; Hanover, VA; Louisa, VA; Caroline, VA; Essex, VA; Richmond, VA; Westmoreland, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 21 at 2:25PM EDT until July 21 at 2:45PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA |
| Expires | 2026-07-21T14:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Wakefield VA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.9e65997dac09427cac6615345a539014587bb9fa.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.baaa658413764fe35e7ff358c3a968bf2acf4bfc.001.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 32/100 (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.