Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 23 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 28 July 2026 at 21:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 142nd strongest of the 207 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 12 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 3 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 28 at 4:57PM EDT until July 28 at 5:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Urban PEI: 2,941,145 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 12 March 2026
- September 4, 2026 · score 46 · 2.0 km
- August 27, 2026 · score 52 · 4.6 km
- March 17, 2026 · score 52 · 5.6 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 46 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 46 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.79/1 |
| Coordinates | 39.3799, -77.1096 |
| Nearest City | Damascus (13 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 2.9M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-28T20:57:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a67f4d78ea21c5da9a3a3e8923087929 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-28T20:57:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-28T21:00:01.349Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Frederick, MD; Lancaster, PA; York, PA; Fauquier, VA; Page, VA; Rappahannock, VA and 5 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 28 at 4:57PM EDT until July 28 at 5:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-07-28T17:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 9 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a67f4d78ea21c5da9a3a3e8923087929dc89ac74.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.275d265dbce47c238ca216dd53a4850ca50c5713.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1a9ba9c2eb79c43f3a223e49630f9d73b4e337ac.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0decc6c10e1617c1e5bfc19f2a4a90674fbe4fe1.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1ef72ba3892c6e2c4ebacc9f8ce61493cd202537.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.d5eff424ccd3400c6e012d068bbe452415db9dd5.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.04c358f223157a2fcd6a54f988ca5c8b67161e6e.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.f3ca77ef539bcd23510193f263cb3234d1f89871.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c2f8e77be74df8eb5b0838f4228696f6b311fc1d.002.1"] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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