This alert expired on 20 May 2026 at 20:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 6th strongest of the 68 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 12 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 9 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 20 at 3:39PM EDT until May 20 at 4:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 197,055 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 12 March 2026
- May 20, 2026 · score 43 · 7.0 km
- March 17, 2026 · score 43 · 9.7 km
- March 16, 2026 · score 43 · 9.7 km
How we know
Confirmed by 5 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 91 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 91% |
| Coordinates | 39.0046, -78.0129 |
| Nearest City | Front Royal (18 km) |
| Population Exposed | 197.1K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-05-20T19:39:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b6dd6edc202b43936fad86731e9dae1a |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Fauquier, VA; Loudoun, VA; Warren, VA; Clarke, VA; Frederick, VA; Warren, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 20 at 3:39PM EDT until May 20 at 4:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-05-20T16:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b6dd6edc202b43936fad86731e9dae1a2ed34101.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ea61b49e4d9496160d9bfb82265e3c0f2ce4f0ea.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 3 SSE Round Hill |
| Iem County | Loudoun |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | LWX |
| Iem Remark | Trees blew down on Paxson Road just west of VA-690 Silcott Springs Road. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_38.670_-78.630_1779303360000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779303360000,"latitude":38.67,"longitude":-78.63},{"id":"iem_D_38.880_-78.270_1779303900000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779303900000,"latitude":38.88,"longitude":-78.27},{"id":"iem_D_39.340_-77.510_1779304260000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779304260000,"latitude":39.34,"longitude":-77.51},{"id":"iem_D_39.100_-77.740_1779303720000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779303720000,"latitude":39.1,"longitude":-77.74}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens near Front Royal?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 43/100, near Front Royal (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.