Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 7 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 13 May 2026 at 23:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 2nd strongest of the 73 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 17 March 2026.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 13 at 7:11PM EDT until May 13 at 7:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 149,505 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- May 13, 2026 · score 43 · 3.3 km
- August 7, 2026 · score 37 · 8.5 km
- June 6, 2026 · score 43 · 8.7 km
How we know
Confirmed by 3 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 91 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 91% |
| Coordinates | 40.1167, -77.1681 |
| Nearest City | Carlisle (9 km) |
| Population Exposed | 149.5K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-05-13T23:11:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ebb91bbd138d51178f7cf67fa1f1cf09 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Carroll, MD; Frederick, MD; Washington, MD; Dauphin, PA; Juniata, PA; Northumberland, PA; Perry, PA; Schuylkill, PA; Snyder, PA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 13 at 7:11PM EDT until May 13 at 7:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-05-13T19:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.ebb91bbd138d51178f7cf67fa1f1cf099873591d.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c81c7b3d95b299f687ac841da51885a60a9b17b4.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 2 ENE Blain |
| Iem County | Perry |
| Iem State | PA |
| Iem Wfo | CTP |
| Iem Remark | Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 2 ENE Blain. WIRES CAME DOWN ON A COMBINE. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_40.430_-77.090_1778714100000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1778714100000,"latitude":40.43,"longitude":-77.09},{"id":"iem_D_40.350_-77.480_1778709900000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1778709900000,"latitude":40.35,"longitude":-77.48}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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