This alert expired on 4 July 2026 at 01:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 8 recorded within 20 km of this point since 17 March 2026 — 6 others scored the same. The last comparable one was on 22 June 2026. One more was recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Special Marine Warning issued July 3 at 9:21PM EDT until July 3 at 9:30PM EDT by NWS Upton NY
An estimated 289,612 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 17 March 2026
- August 28, 2026 · score 43 · 5.0 km
- July 5, 2026 · score 43 · 14.4 km
- June 22, 2026 · score 43 · 22.1 km
How we know
Confirmed by 6 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 89 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 89% |
| Coordinates | 39.8426, -73.7530 |
| Nearest City | Bayville (35 km) |
| Population Exposed | 289.6K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-04T01:21:00.000Z |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Special Marine Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 NM; Waters from Sandy Hook NJ to Fire Island Inlet NY out 20 to 60 NM; Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM; Waters from Manasquan Inlet NJ to Little Egg Inlet NJ from 20 to 60 NM; Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 NM; Waters from Manasquan Inlet NJ to Little Egg Inlet NJ from 20 to 60 NM; Waters from Little Egg Inlet NJ to Great Egg Inlet NJ from 20 to 60 NM; Waters from Great Egg Inlet NJ to Cape May NJ from 20 to 60 NM and 1 more areas |
| Headline | Special Marine Warning issued July 3 at 9:21PM EDT until July 3 at 9:30PM EDT by NWS Upton NY |
| Expires | 2026-07-03T21:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Upton NY |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 4 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.33b7a98748a52bab565414f29bd8e3f5ef953faa.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.471f2bbb677417beffdec8dd8bcd45acaf312f59.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.bf7a0348c0577693fcd5e7cd45dcda8e078eb907.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.91ec687233aa2b6207510713bc4eab4fbdc4cd0c.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | M |
| Iem Magnitude | 44 |
| Iem Unit | MPH |
| Iem City | 2 NNE Lavallette |
| Iem County | ANZ451 |
| Iem State | NJ |
| Iem Wfo | PHI |
| Iem Remark | Brick mesonet gusted to 38 kt. Time estimated from radar. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_40.120_-74.050_1783125240000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783125240000,"latitude":40.12,"longitude":-74.05},{"id":"iem_G_40.130_-74.030_1783125600000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783125600000,"latitude":40.13,"longitude":-74.03},{"id":"iem_M_40.130_-74.020_1783125600000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783125600000,"latitude":40.13,"longitude":-74.02},{"id":"iem_M_39.940_-74.070_1783126140000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783126140000,"latitude":39.94,"longitude":-74.07},{"id":"iem_M_40.000_-74.050_1783125780000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783125780000,"latitude":40,"longitude":-74.05}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 43/100, near Bayville (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 191 scientific monitoring sources.