MediumSevere WeatherCS: 28 · v5

Severe Weather near Dover

KentUnited StatesNOAA

Right now

The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 1 minute ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.

5 other detections within 20 km in the last 24 hours, the nearest <1 km from here.

This alert expired on 25 September 2026 at 02:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.

No stronger detection stands among the 6 recorded within 20 km of this point since 11 March 2026 — 5 others scored the same. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 5 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.

What the source measured

NOAA reported: Storm Watch issued September 24 at 2:43PM EDT until September 26 at 7:00AM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA

Urban PEI: 39,403 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.

Nearby, since 11 March 2026

How we know

One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.

Our own score for this event is 28 out of 100.

This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.

Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.

Event Data

TypeSevere Weather
SeverityMedium
Calamity Score (ours)28 / 100
Legacy data-support index0.78/1
Coordinates39.0000, -75.5000
Nearest CityDover (18 km)
Urban exposure index (PEI)39.4K within 50 km
Impact Tiersignificant
Timestamp2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z
Sourcehttps://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.b78c1f55a80af0bd88d429ac4ecded0487b07b72.001.2

Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.

Source and revision timeline

Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z.

First archived: 2026-09-24T22:04:35.990Z. Material modification: not recorded.

Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.

  1. 2026-09-24T22:42:23.660Z · data_change

    Index 28 → 28; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.

  2. 2026-09-24T22:31:41.005Z · data_change

    Index 28 → 28; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.

Score Breakdown

35
intensity
40
Urban PEI term
0
Scenario weight
18
Recorded reference / batch anomaly

Technical Details

EventStorm Watch
UrgencyFuture
CertaintyPossible
AreaDescWaters from Fenwick Island DE to Chintoteague VA from 20 to 60 NM; Waters from Chincoteague VA to Parramore Island VA from 20 to 60 NM; Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Cape May NJ to Cape Henlopen DE out 20 NM; Coastal waters from Cape Henlopen to Fenwick Island DE out 20 NM
HeadlineStorm Watch issued September 24 at 2:43PM EDT until September 26 at 7:00AM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA
Expires2026-09-24T22:45:00-04:00
SenderNameNWS Wakefield VA
HasExactCoordsfalse
MergedCount2
MergedIds["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b78c1f55a80af0bd88d429ac4ecded0487b07b72.001.2","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.9b27f95bb302a60bb6dfd7d90dbb94c6dc7bd8d7.003.2"]

Safety Information

Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.

Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.

This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.

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