This alert expired on 16 March 2026 at 16:21 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 145 recorded within 20 km of this point since 12 March 2026 — 5 others scored the same. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 52 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Tornado Warning issued March 16 at 12:11PM EDT until March 16 at 12:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 2,234,619 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 12 March 2026
- July 6, 2026 · score 52 · 2.6 km
- March 17, 2026 · score 52 · 5.8 km
- March 16, 2026 · score 52 · 5.8 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 76 out of 100, at 78 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | critical |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 76 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 78% |
| Coordinates | 39.4580, -77.0970 |
| Nearest City | Eldersburg (14 km) |
| Population Exposed | 2.2M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | catastrophic |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-16T16:11:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Tornado Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a0b89a6a6f42e316abfb4fcfd7b9643c |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Tornado Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Carroll, MD; Frederick, MD; Carroll, MD; Howard, MD |
| Headline | Tornado Warning issued March 16 at 12:11PM EDT until March 16 at 12:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-03-16T12:21:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a0b89a6a6f42e316abfb4fcfd7b9643c540094b0.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.16abdb7541cabac6ca08ed06c70985c1443924e4.001.1"] |
Safety Information
If a tornado warning is issued: go to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows. A vehicle and a mobile home are not shelter. Cover your head and neck. Wait for the official all-clear before going outside, and watch for downed power lines and gas leaks afterwards.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 76/100, near Eldersburg (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.