This alert expired on 15 March 2026 at 22:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 29 recorded within 20 km of this point since 15 March 2026 — 2 others scored the same. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 3 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Tornado Warning issued March 15 at 5:49PM EDT until March 15 at 6:15PM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL
An estimated 1,263,463 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 15 March 2026
- May 12, 2026 · score 52 · 5.1 km
- March 15, 2026 · score 76 · 6.0 km
- May 12, 2026 · score 52 · 8.5 km
How we know
Confirmed by 4 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 76 out of 100, at 87 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | critical |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 76 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 87% |
| Coordinates | 28.7635, -81.2830 |
| Nearest City | Lake Mary (4 km) |
| Population Exposed | 1.3M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | catastrophic |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-15T21:49:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Tornado-Warning_noaa_urn-oid-2_49_0_1_840_0_55a21e29907885293dffe6bb06144af6 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Tornado Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Seminole, FL |
| Headline | Tornado Warning issued March 15 at 5:49PM EDT until March 15 at 6:15PM EDT by NWS Melbourne FL |
| Expires | 2026-03-15T18:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Melbourne FL |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.55a21e29907885293dffe6bb06144af61e094173.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.89d246945af8346035fa08e0ef3f202e0e9b28f3.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | G |
| Iem Magnitude | 53 |
| Iem Unit | MPH |
| Iem City | 1 SW Orlando Internatio |
| Iem County | Orange |
| Iem State | FL |
| Iem Wfo | MLB |
| Iem Remark | Orlando International Airport measured a peak wind gust of 53MPH/46KT from the southwest at 5:04 PM. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_H_28.240_-81.560_1773607200000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1773607200000,"latitude":28.24,"longitude":-81.56},{"id":"iem_G_28.290_-81.410_1773608400000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1773608400000,"latitude":28.29,"longitude":-81.41},{"id":"iem_G_28.420_-81.330_1773608640000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1773608640000,"latitude":28.42,"longitude":-81.33}] |
Safety Information
If a tornado warning is issued: go to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows. A vehicle and a mobile home are not shelter. Cover your head and neck. Wait for the official all-clear before going outside, and watch for downed power lines and gas leaks afterwards.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 76/100, near Lake Mary (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.