Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 60 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
5 other detections within 20 km in the last 24 hours, the nearest 11 km from here.
This alert expired on 15 September 2026 at 07:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 3rd strongest of the 20 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 18 May 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 4 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued September 15 at 2:01AM CDT until September 15 at 2:30AM CDT by NWS Des Moines IA
Urban PEI: 18,990 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 18 May 2026
- September 9, 2026 · score 16 · 12.6 km
- May 18, 2026 · score 39 · 15.8 km
How we know
3 recorded sources include NOAA; independence is not established by this count.
Our own score for this event is 28 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 28 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.92/1 |
| Coordinates | 41.5900, -94.3686 |
| Nearest City | Waukee (40 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 19.0K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-15T07:01:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.08841694d0f9bb72a9b17c7e5ec7bd80f64f9b2f.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-15T07:01:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-15T07:17:31.169Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Adair, IA; Guthrie, IA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued September 15 at 2:01AM CDT until September 15 at 2:30AM CDT by NWS Des Moines IA |
| Expires | 2026-09-15T02:30:00-05:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Des Moines IA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| Spc ReportType | wind |
| Spc Speed | 63 |
| Spc Location | 3 S Creston |
| Spc County | Union |
| Spc State | IA |
| Spc Comments | (DMX) |
| Iem TypeSummary | G |
| Iem Magnitude | 63 |
| Iem Unit | MPH |
| Iem City | 3 S Creston |
| Iem County | Union |
| Iem State | IA |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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