This alert expired on 8 July 2026 at 00:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 10th strongest of the 28 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 20 May 2026. The last comparable one was on 6 July 2026. 3 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued July 7 at 5:13PM EDT until July 7 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 42,354 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 20 May 2026
- July 21, 2026 · score 28 · 14.2 km
- August 27, 2026 · score 45 · 17.5 km
- August 8, 2026 · score 34 · 17.5 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 28 out of 100, at 80 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 28 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 80% |
| Coordinates | 38.8188, -78.4425 |
| Nearest City | Front Royal (25 km) |
| Population Exposed | 42.4K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-07T21:13:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0dda76f48c93a1c6cf66dbf6471dfff38f8afd16.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Page, VA; Shenandoah, VA |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued July 7 at 5:13PM EDT until July 7 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-07-07T20:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 28/100, near Front Royal (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.