Severe weather near Baileys Crossroads
This alert expired on 2 August 2026 at 23:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 2nd strongest of the 807 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 10 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 119 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued August 2 at 6:07PM EDT until August 2 at 7:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 4,298,908 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 10 March 2026
- March 17, 2026 · score 52 · 1.2 km
- July 5, 2026 · score 52 · 6.1 km
- June 11, 2026 · score 46 · 6.3 km
How we know
Confirmed by 7 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 66 out of 100, at 90 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | critical |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 66 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 90% |
| Coordinates | 38.8389, -77.1232 |
| Nearest City | Baileys Crossroads (1 km) |
| Population Exposed | 4.3M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | catastrophic |
| Timestamp | 2026-08-02T22:07:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.0f850c6770234bd44fa69a0eb601218c6a5e3e5c.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | District of Columbia, DC; Montgomery, MD; Arlington, VA; Fairfax, VA; Prince William, VA; City of Alexandria, VA; City of Fairfax, VA; City of Falls Church, VA |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued August 2 at 6:07PM EDT until August 2 at 7:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-08-02T19:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| Iem TypeSummary | F |
| Iem City | 2 N Newington |
| Iem County | Fairfax |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | LWX |
| Iem Remark | Hooes Road near Accotink Creek closed due to water flowing over the road at leat 6 inches deep. |
| Ogimet StationId | 72503 |
| Ogimet WindSpeed | 84 |
| Ogimet WindUnit | knots |
| Ogimet Temperature | 28.3 |
| Ogimet TemperatureUnit | C |
| Ogimet RawSynop | 08,02,17,51,AAXX 02184 72503 32566 61511 10283 20217 30115 40128 58013 91751 333 10300 20250 91022 555 90218= |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 66/100, near Baileys Crossroads (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.