This alert expired on 5 July 2026 at 23:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 4th strongest of the 59 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 13 May 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 4 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Tornado Warning issued July 5 at 6:44PM EDT until July 5 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS State College PA
An estimated 69,326 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 13 May 2026
- June 15, 2026 · score 43 · 9.7 km
- August 28, 2026 · score 39 · 15.6 km
- August 27, 2026 · score 32 · 15.6 km
How we know
Confirmed by 4 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 63 out of 100, at 87 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | critical |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 63 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 87% |
| Coordinates | 40.3583, -77.1033 |
| Nearest City | Carlisle (19 km) |
| Population Exposed | 69.3K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | severe |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-05T22:44:00.000Z |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Tornado Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Cumberland, PA; Dauphin, PA; Perry, PA |
| Headline | Tornado Warning issued July 5 at 6:44PM EDT until July 5 at 7:15PM EDT by NWS State College PA |
| Expires | 2026-07-05T19:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS State College PA |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 2 NNW Mifflintown |
| Iem County | Juniata |
| Iem State | PA |
| Iem Wfo | CTP |
| Iem Remark | Construction equipment blown onto Route 322 blocking traffic. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_40.580_-77.420_1783288200000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783288200000,"latitude":40.58,"longitude":-77.42},{"id":"iem_D_40.590_-77.630_1783287720000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783287720000,"latitude":40.59,"longitude":-77.63},{"id":"iem_D_40.600_-77.410_1783287660000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783287660000,"latitude":40.6,"longitude":-77.41}] |
Safety Information
If a tornado warning is issued: go to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows. A vehicle and a mobile home are not shelter. Cover your head and neck. Wait for the official all-clear before going outside, and watch for downed power lines and gas leaks afterwards.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 63/100, near Carlisle (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 194 scientific monitoring sources.