This alert expired on 16 May 2026 at 21:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 22 recorded within 20 km of this point since 13 May 2026 — 15 others scored the same. The last comparable one was on 13 May 2026. 5 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Special Marine Warning issued May 16 at 4:41PM EDT until May 16 at 5:15PM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY
An estimated 159,265 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 13 May 2026
- June 26, 2026 · score 43 · 3.3 km
- May 13, 2026 · score 43 · 4.0 km
- July 28, 2026 · score 43 · 11.3 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 43 out of 100, at 78 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 43 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 78% |
| Coordinates | 43.8905, -76.2200 |
| Nearest City | Watertown (26 km) |
| Population Exposed | 159.3K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-05-16T20:41:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.1e5eedbad263455d15775d016c33dacdbeb46301.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Special Marine Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay NY; Mexico Bay NY to the St. Lawrence River; Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay NY beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border; Mexico Bay NY to the St. Lawrence River beyond 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border |
| Headline | Special Marine Warning issued May 16 at 4:41PM EDT until May 16 at 5:15PM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY |
| Expires | 2026-05-16T17:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Buffalo NY |
| HasExactCoords | true |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 43/100, near Watertown (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.