Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 8 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 1 August 2026 at 01:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 64 recorded within 20 km of this point since 15 March 2026 — 20 others scored the same. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 3 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued July 31 at 7:29PM EDT until July 31 at 9:30PM EDT by NWS Gaylord MI
Nearby, since 15 March 2026
- August 12, 2026 · score 22 · 18.3 km
- July 27, 2026 · score 22 · 19.5 km
How we know
Confirmed by 3 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 22 out of 100, at 71 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 22 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 71% |
| Coordinates | 44.9600, -83.4630 |
| Nearest City | Bay City (156 km) |
| Impact Tier | minor |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-31T23:29:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.2721c108ad3029eb021d87442b0b7faf17d97725.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Alcona, MI; Alpena, MI |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued July 31 at 7:29PM EDT until July 31 at 9:30PM EDT by NWS Gaylord MI |
| Expires | 2026-07-31T21:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Gaylord MI |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| Iem TypeSummary | R |
| Iem Magnitude | 1.1 |
| Iem Unit | Inch |
| Iem City | 1 NNE Mio |
| Iem County | Oscoda |
| Iem State | MI |
| Iem Wfo | APX |
| Iem Remark | MIO RAWs. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_R_44.900_-83.480_1785529200000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1785529200000,"latitude":44.9,"longitude":-83.48},{"id":"iem_R_44.670_-84.120_1785534240000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1785534240000,"latitude":44.67,"longitude":-84.12}] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens in this area?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 22/100 (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 185 scientific monitoring sources.