Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 4 hours ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
One other detection within 20 km in the last 24 hours, 5 km from here.
This alert expired on 21 July 2026 at 19:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 33rd strongest of the 111 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 6 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 21 at 2:05PM EDT until July 21 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY
Urban PEI: 1,083,910 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- July 21, 2026 · score 46 · 2.2 km
- August 27, 2026 · score 52 · 3.7 km
- July 1, 2026 · score 52 · 4.8 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 46 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 46 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.80/1 |
| Coordinates | 43.1088, -78.9506 |
| Nearest City | Grand Island (9 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 1.1M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-21T18:05:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.3a10b940d1b05c740111eccb3e02b164873821b4.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-07-21T18:05:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-07-21T18:32:47.292Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Erie, NY; Niagara, NY |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued July 21 at 2:05PM EDT until July 21 at 3:00PM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY |
| Expires | 2026-07-21T15:00:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Buffalo NY |
| HasExactCoords | true |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
Want to know when something happens near Grand Island?