Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 35 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
4 other detections within 20 km in the last 24 hours, the nearest 17 km from here.
This alert expired on 13 September 2026 at 18:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 37th strongest of the 130 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 9 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 4 September 2026. 31 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued September 13 at 1:22PM EDT until September 13 at 2:15PM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY
An estimated 1,083,910 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 9 March 2026
- July 21, 2026 · score 52 · 0.4 km
- June 17, 2026 · score 46 · 4.2 km
- August 27, 2026 · score 52 · 4.8 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 46 out of 100, at 82 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v4. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 46 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 82% |
| Coordinates | 43.0908, -78.8962 |
| Nearest City | North Tonawanda (6 km) |
| Population Exposed | 1.1M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-13T17:22:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.e2d1303e09c42e3f40295165884a0700b3455fd4.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Erie, NY; Genesee, NY; Niagara, NY; Orleans, NY |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued September 13 at 1:22PM EDT until September 13 at 2:15PM EDT by NWS Buffalo NY |
| Expires | 2026-09-13T14:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Buffalo NY |
| HasExactCoords | true |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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