This alert expired on 16 March 2026 at 22:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 3rd strongest of the 242 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 12 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 20 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flood Warning issued March 16 at 3:33PM EDT until March 16 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 4,205,454 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 12 March 2026
- June 28, 2026 · score 52 · 3.2 km
- March 17, 2026 · score 52 · 7.9 km
- March 16, 2026 · score 52 · 7.9 km
How we know
Confirmed by 54 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 52 out of 100, at 89 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 52 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 89% |
| Coordinates | 38.8775, -77.2967 |
| Nearest City | Oakton (0 km) |
| Population Exposed | 4.2M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-16T19:33:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.47c38aec17dccc29aa8082df80f8e8b0b05ce178.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Expected |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Montgomery, MD; Fairfax, VA; City of Fairfax, VA; City of Falls Church, VA |
| Headline | Flood Warning issued March 16 at 3:33PM EDT until March 16 at 6:30PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-03-16T18:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| Spc ReportType | wind |
| Spc Speed | UNK |
| Spc Location | 2 SW Reston |
| Spc County | Fairfax |
| Spc State | VA |
| Spc Comments | Road closure due to a downed tree. (LWX) |
| Iem TypeSummary | E |
| Iem City | 2 WNW Annandale |
| Iem County | Fairfax |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | LWX |
| Iem Remark | Wooodburn Rd at Spicewood Dr closed due to high water |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 52/100, near Oakton (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.