Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 18 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
One other detection within 20 km in the last 24 hours, 3 km from here.
This alert expired on 27 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is one of only 2 we have recorded within 20 km of this point since 12 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 13 September 2026. 2 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flood Warning issued September 27 at 9:00AM EDT until September 27 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ
Urban PEI: 1,615,269 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 12 March 2026
- September 27, 2026 · score 46 · 2.8 km
- July 5, 2026 · 4.3 km
- August 7, 2026 · 6.0 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 46 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 46 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.81/1 |
| Coordinates | 40.4800, -74.8420 |
| Nearest City | Hillsborough (18 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 1.6M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.4f0048207757aafe9de062981220d32f98b16748.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-27T13:06:57.337Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2026-09-27T14:49:06.028Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-27T14:11:40.720Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-27T13:44:41.475Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flood Warning |
| MessageId | urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.4f0048207757aafe9de062981220d32f98b16748.001.1 |
| Urgency | Expected |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Hunterdon, NJ |
| Headline | Flood Warning issued September 27 at 9:00AM EDT until September 27 at 11:00AM EDT by NWS Mount Holly NJ |
| Expires | 2026-09-27T11:00:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Mount Holly NJ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| Iem TypeSummary | Heavy rain |
| Iem LsrCode | R |
| Iem LsrType | RAIN |
| Iem Magnitude | 2.8 |
| Iem Unit | Inch |
| Iem City | South River |
| Iem County | Middlesex |
| Iem State | NJ |
| Iem Wfo | PHI |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_O_41.030_-74.420_1790498760000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":35,"timestamp":1790498760000,"latitude":41.03,"longitude":-74.42},{"id":"iem_R_40.450_-74.380_1790512620000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1790512620000,"latitude":40.45,"longitude":-74.38}] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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