This alert expired on 6 August 2026 at 21:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 87th strongest of the 106 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 28 July 2026. 3 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 6 at 4:27PM EDT until August 6 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 347,563 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- July 28, 2026 · score 67 · 3.1 km
- June 14, 2026 · score 43 · 3.4 km
- March 17, 2026 · score 43 · 4.0 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 37 out of 100, at 80 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 37 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 80% |
| Coordinates | 38.8060, -77.9800 |
| Nearest City | Front Royal (22 km) |
| Population Exposed | 347.6K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-08-06T20:27:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.5b55727a3934608999bd204439f8a2f6cda23a81.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Fauquier, VA; Rappahannock, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued August 6 at 4:27PM EDT until August 6 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-08-06T17:00:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 37/100, near Front Royal (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.