This alert expired on 5 July 2026 at 02:31 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 96 recorded within 20 km of this point since 15 March 2026 — 41 others scored the same. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 16 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued July 4 at 9:21PM CDT until July 4 at 9:30PM CDT by NWS St Louis MO
An estimated 1,305,532 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 15 March 2026
- July 4, 2026 · score 52 · 0.0 km
- March 16, 2026 · score 52 · 4.5 km
- March 15, 2026 · score 52 · 4.5 km
How we know
Confirmed by 9 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 52 out of 100, at 90 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 52 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 90% |
| Coordinates | 38.5947, -90.5016 |
| Nearest City | Manchester (1 km) |
| Population Exposed | 1.3M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-05T02:21:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.685122b7002a9714e8f099f85cf7076962dacd08.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | St. Louis, MO; St. Louis City, MO |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued July 4 at 9:21PM CDT until July 4 at 9:30PM CDT by NWS St Louis MO |
| Expires | 2026-07-04T21:31:00-05:00 |
| SenderName | NWS St Louis MO |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | Washington |
| Iem County | Franklin |
| Iem State | MO |
| Iem Wfo | LSX |
| Iem Remark | Emergency management reported severe large trees down within the Washington city limits. Time estimated by radar. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_38.650_-90.590_1783199280000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783199280000,"latitude":38.65,"longitude":-90.59},{"id":"iem_F_38.600_-90.490_1783202100000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783202100000,"latitude":38.6,"longitude":-90.49},{"id":"iem_D_37.930_-90.600_1783199100000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783199100000,"latitude":37.93,"longitude":-90.6},{"id":"iem_D_38.540_-90.990_1783197360000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783197360000,"latitude":38.54,"longitude":-90.99},{"id":"iem_F_38.580_-90.520_1783202580000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783202580000,"latitude":38.58,"longitude":-90.52},{"id":"iem_D_38.690_-90.420_1783200600000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783200600000,"latitude":38.69,"longitude":-90.42},{"id":"iem_D_38.540_-90.990_1783200960000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783200960000,"latitude":38.54,"longitude":-90.99},{"id":"iem_D_38.550_-91.010_1783197180000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1783197180000,"latitude":38.55,"longitude":-91.01}] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens near Manchester?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 52/100, near Manchester (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 185 scientific monitoring sources.