This alert expired on 16 March 2026 at 23:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 122 recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026 — one other scored the same. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 2 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Tornado Watch issued March 16 at 3:29PM EDT until March 16 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA
An estimated 145,329 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- August 11, 2026 · score 43 · 0.0 km
- August 10, 2026 · score 43 · 0.0 km
- July 29, 2026 · score 43 · 0.0 km
How we know
Confirmed by 6 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 55 out of 100, at 88 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | high |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 55 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 88% |
| Coordinates | 37.4000, -78.7000 |
| Nearest City | Lynchburg (39 km) |
| Population Exposed | 145.3K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | severe |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-16T19:29:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.75d5bedfbbe4473f561ad6eaa42e32664cab2f2b.003.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Tornado Watch |
| Urgency | Future |
| Certainty | Possible |
| AreaDesc | Chesapeake Bay from Smith Point to Windmill Point VA; Chesapeake Bay from Windmill Point to New Point Comfort VA; Chesapeake Bay from New Point Comfort to Little Creek VA; Currituck Sound; Chesapeake Bay from Little Creek VA to Cape Henry VA including the Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel; Rappahannock River from Urbanna to Windmill Point; York River; James River from Jamestown to the James River Bridge; James River from James River Bridge to Hampton Roads Bridge-Tunnel |
| Headline | Tornado Watch issued March 16 at 3:29PM EDT until March 16 at 7:00PM EDT by NWS Wakefield VA |
| Expires | 2026-03-16T19:00:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Wakefield VA |
| HasExactCoords | false |
| Spc ReportType | wind |
| Spc Speed | UNK |
| Spc Location | 1 N Mcrae |
| Spc County | Cumberland |
| Spc State | VA |
| Spc Comments | Tree downed and partially blocking roadway at Shiloh and US-60. (AKQ) |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 1 N Mcrae |
| Iem County | Cumberland |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | AKQ |
| Iem Remark | Tree downed and partially blocking roadway at Shiloh and US-60. |
Safety Information
If a tornado warning is issued: go to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor, away from windows. A vehicle and a mobile home are not shelter. Cover your head and neck. Wait for the official all-clear before going outside, and watch for downed power lines and gas leaks afterwards.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 55/100 (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.