This alert expired on 16 July 2026 at 00:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 14 recorded within 20 km of this point since 11 April 2026 — 7 others scored the same. The last comparable one was on 18 May 2026.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued July 15 at 4:32PM MDT until July 15 at 6:30PM MDT by NWS Grand Junction CO
An estimated 80,247 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 11 April 2026
- July 18, 2026 · score 39 · 10.5 km
- August 31, 2026 · score 39 · 12.9 km
- August 30, 2026 · score 39 · 12.9 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 39 out of 100, at 81 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 39 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 81% |
| Coordinates | 38.7312, -108.7281 |
| Nearest City | Grand Junction (40 km) |
| Population Exposed | 80.2K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-07-15T22:32:00.000Z |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Mesa, CO |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued July 15 at 4:32PM MDT until July 15 at 6:30PM MDT by NWS Grand Junction CO |
| Expires | 2026-07-15T18:30:00-06:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Grand Junction CO |
| HasExactCoords | true |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 39/100, near Grand Junction (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 191 scientific monitoring sources.