This alert expired on 2 September 2026 at 21:00 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 64th strongest of the 123 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 14 August 2026.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued September 2 at 3:36PM EDT until September 2 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 145,329 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- August 11, 2026 · score 43 · 0.0 km
- August 10, 2026 · score 43 · 0.0 km
- July 29, 2026 · score 43 · 0.0 km
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 37 out of 100, at 80 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v4. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 37 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 80% |
| Coordinates | 37.4000, -78.7000 |
| Nearest City | Lynchburg (39 km) |
| Population Exposed | 145.3K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-02T19:36:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.87798598c8cd6af5696a1656c47c24c6e5b17f88.003.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Watch |
| Urgency | Future |
| Certainty | Possible |
| AreaDesc | Culpeper, VA; Fauquier, VA; Greene, VA; King George, VA; Madison, VA; Orange, VA; Page, VA; Rappahannock, VA; Spotsylvania, VA; Stafford, VA; City of Fredericksburg, VA; City of Manassas Park, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued September 2 at 3:36PM EDT until September 2 at 5:00PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-09-02T17:00:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | false |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens in this area?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 37/100 (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 185 scientific monitoring sources.