Calamity
HighSevere WeatherCS: 28 · v5

Severe Weather in United States

United StatesNOAA

Right now

The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 70 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.

Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.

This alert expired on 15 September 2026 at 02:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.

It is the strongest of the 22 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 15 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 14 April 2026.

What the source measured

NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued September 14 at 6:48PM MDT until September 14 at 8:15PM MDT by NWS Grand Junction CO

How we know

3 recorded sources include NOAA; independence is not established by this count.

Our own score for this event is 28 out of 100.

This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.

Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.

Event Data

TypeSevere Weather
SeverityHigh
Calamity Score (ours)28 / 100
Legacy data-support index0.71/1
Coordinates37.1257, -106.8414
Nearest CityDurango (94 km)
Urban exposure index (PEI)0 within 50 km
Impact Tierminor
Timestamp2026-09-15T00:48:00.000Z
Sourcehttps://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.a6bd3960c2bcb774c9c6d1734351843a7eac8850.001.1

Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.

Source and revision timeline

Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-15T00:48:00.000Z.

First archived: 2026-09-15T02:01:40.449Z. Material modification: not recorded.

Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.

  1. 2026-09-15T02:07:09.639Z · data_change

    Index 2828; severity highhigh; version 55.

Score Breakdown

50
intensity
0
Urban PEI term
0
Scenario weight
80
Recorded reference / batch anomaly

Technical Details

EventFlash Flood Warning
UrgencyImmediate
CertaintyLikely
AreaDescArchuleta, CO
HeadlineFlash Flood Warning issued September 14 at 6:48PM MDT until September 14 at 8:15PM MDT by NWS Grand Junction CO
Expires2026-09-14T20:15:00-06:00
SenderNameNWS Grand Junction CO
HasExactCoordstrue
Spc ReportTypetornado
Spc SpeedUNK
Spc LocationArboles
Spc CountyArchuleta
Spc StateCO
Spc Comments[Landspout] (GJT)
Iem TypeSummaryC
Iem City1 W Ignacio
Iem CountyLa Plata
Iem StateCO
Iem WfoGJT
Iem RemarkFunnel cloud reported west of Ignacio briefly before dissipating.

Safety Information

During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.

Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.

This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.

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