Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 35 minutes ago, and this point is in it.
5 other detections within 20 km in the last 24 hours, the nearest 9 km from here.
This alert is in force until 17 September 2026, 15:30 UTC.
It is the 3rd strongest of the 23 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 26 May 2026. The last comparable one was on 16 September 2026. 5 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flood Warning issued September 16 at 8:34PM MST until September 17 at 8:30AM MST by NWS Phoenix AZ
Urban PEI: 3,834,381 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 26 May 2026
- September 16, 2026 · score 46 · 8.5 km
- September 16, 2026 · score 46 · 15.4 km
- July 17, 2026 · score 46 · 16.5 km
How we know
2 recorded sources include NOAA; independence is not established by this count.
Our own score for this event is 46 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 46 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.87/1 |
| Coordinates | 33.2082, -111.7694 |
| Nearest City | Chandler (13 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 3.8M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-17T03:34:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.ab4b2d6de2ef052c47cdb84c401b573ff49fdf39.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-17T03:34:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-17T10:02:14.535Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2026-09-17T10:40:36.401Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T10:19:22.234Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-17T10:08:46.062Z · data_change
Index 46 → 46; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Expected |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Maricopa, AZ; Pinal, AZ |
| Headline | Flood Warning issued September 16 at 8:34PM MST until September 17 at 8:30AM MST by NWS Phoenix AZ |
| Expires | 2026-09-17T08:30:00-07:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Phoenix AZ |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| Iem TypeSummary | F |
| Iem City | 4 NNW Paradise Valley |
| Iem County | Maricopa |
| Iem State | AZ |
| Iem Wfo | PSR |
| Iem Remark | Maricopa County Flood Control District streamflow gauge (IBW @ Shea Blvd) is indicating water level is above Alarm stage (2.00 ft). |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_F_33.600_-112.010_1789597080000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1789597080000,"latitude":33.6,"longitude":-112.01},{"id":"iem_F_33.800_-112.120_1789595940000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1789595940000,"latitude":33.8,"longitude":-112.12},{"id":"iem_F_33.780_-112.190_1789595700000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1789595700000,"latitude":33.78,"longitude":-112.19},{"id":"iem_F_33.680_-111.930_1789597800000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1789597800000,"latitude":33.68,"longitude":-111.93},{"id":"iem_F_33.780_-112.130_1789598340000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1789598340000,"latitude":33.78,"longitude":-112.13},{"id":"iem_F_33.580_-111.970_1789597260000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1789597260000,"latitude":33.58,"longitude":-111.97}] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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