Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 24 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
This alert expired on 16 September 2026 at 03:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Flash Flood Warning issued September 15 at 6:18PM MDT until September 15 at 9:15PM MDT by NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
Urban PEI: 101,643 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
How we know
One source: NOAA. Not yet confirmed by a second, independent source.
Our own score for this event is 37 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v5. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 37 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.81/1 |
| Coordinates | 32.2350, -106.9411 |
| Nearest City | Las Cruces (17 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 101.6K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-16T00:18:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.fc796386d8c3d2bda8373df19165e82e964db190.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v5. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-09-16T00:18:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-09-16T00:25:03.541Z. Material modification: 2026-09-16T00:35:49.696Z.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
2026-09-16T01:35:43.082Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-16T01:03:30.156Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-16T00:52:43.810Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-16T00:47:21.173Z · data_change
Index 37 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-16T00:35:49.696Z · data_change
Index 16 → 37; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
2026-09-16T00:30:28.019Z · data_change
Index 16 → 16; severity medium → medium; version 5 → 5.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Flash Flood Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Likely |
| AreaDesc | Otero, NM; Luna, NM |
| Headline | Flash Flood Warning issued September 15 at 6:18PM MDT until September 15 at 9:15PM MDT by NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM |
| Expires | 2026-09-15T21:15:00-06:00 |
| SenderName | NWS El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.fc796386d8c3d2bda8373df19165e82e964db190.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.2cc57e2e7d87e6c9828909ee740741af933f99ec.001.1"] |
Safety Information
During flooding: never walk, swim, or drive through floodwaters. Six inches of moving water can knock you down, and one foot of water can sweep away a vehicle. Move to higher ground if waters rise. After flooding, avoid contact with floodwater which may contain sewage, chemicals, or debris. Follow local emergency service guidance.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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