Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 2 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 16 March 2026 at 15:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 56th strongest of the 138 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 2 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 16 at 10:39AM EDT until March 16 at 11:15AM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 68,352 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- June 22, 2026 · score 34 · 7.8 km
- September 3, 2026 · score 32 · 10.1 km
- September 2, 2026 · score 32 · 10.1 km
How we know
Confirmed by 3 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 39 out of 100, at 88 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 39 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 88% |
| Coordinates | 38.6483, -78.0592 |
| Nearest City | Culpeper (20 km) |
| Population Exposed | 68.4K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-03-16T14:39:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.47d131e6db909be37e35738ae1d45e37 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Clarke, VA; Culpeper, VA; Fauquier, VA; Frederick, VA; Loudoun, VA; Prince William, VA; Rappahannock, VA; Shenandoah, VA; Warren, VA; City of Winchester, VA; Culpeper, VA; Madison, VA; Rappahannock, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued March 16 at 10:39AM EDT until March 16 at 11:15AM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-03-16T11:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.47d131e6db909be37e35738ae1d45e37f13a497d.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.333329d8215772562a128449534a6b8e74e2224e.002.1"] |
| Spc ReportType | wind |
| Spc Speed | UNK |
| Spc Location | 1 N McMullen |
| Spc County | Greene |
| Spc State | VA |
| Spc Comments | A tree was down along South River Road and Entry Run Road. (LWX) |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 1 N McMullen |
| Iem County | Greene |
| Iem State | VA |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens near Culpeper?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 39/100, near Culpeper (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 185 scientific monitoring sources.