This alert expired on 2 September 2026 at 20:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 28th strongest of the 50 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 19 May 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued September 2 at 3:48PM EDT until September 2 at 4:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 45,675 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 19 May 2026
- June 14, 2026 · score 37 · 9.8 km
- May 19, 2026 · score 34 · 18.2 km
- August 7, 2026 · score 43 · 18.4 km
How we know
Confirmed by 3 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 28 out of 100, at 91 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v4. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 28 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 91% |
| Coordinates | 38.4233, -77.9678 |
| Nearest City | Culpeper (6 km) |
| Population Exposed | 45.7K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-02T19:48:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.bb5b041d50ebe39c6c229d07167371caa694f82f.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Culpeper, VA; Fauquier, VA; Orange, VA; Culpeper, VA; Madison, VA; Rappahannock, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued September 2 at 3:48PM EDT until September 2 at 4:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-09-02T16:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 2 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.bb5b041d50ebe39c6c229d07167371caa694f82f.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.714907c77c21f9a90fb82fa9ebbba2bb2014534c.001.1"] |
| Spc ReportType | wind |
| Spc Speed | UNK |
| Spc Location | Dogue |
| Spc County | King George |
| Spc State | VA |
| Spc Comments | Trees down near Port Conway Road and Powhatan Road. Time estimated via radar. (LWX) |
| Iem TypeSummary | M |
| Iem Magnitude | 46 |
| Iem Unit | mph |
| Iem City | Quantico Marine Corp |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens near Culpeper?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 28/100, near Culpeper (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 185 scientific monitoring sources.