This alert expired on 19 May 2026 at 22:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 9th strongest of the 30 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 16 March 2026.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 19 at 5:28PM EDT until May 19 at 6:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 32,627 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- June 22, 2026 · score 34 · 10.1 km
- August 6, 2026 · score 34 · 15.2 km
- June 14, 2026 · score 37 · 17.0 km
How we know
Confirmed by 2 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 34 out of 100, at 85 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Event Data
| Type | Severe weather |
| Severity | medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 34 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 85% |
| Coordinates | 38.5063, -78.1475 |
| Nearest City | Culpeper (13 km) |
| Population Exposed | 32.6K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-05-19T21:28:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.c7fac98726371b1b5b561ea027bf9984139961b4.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Culpeper, VA; Madison, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 19 at 5:28PM EDT until May 19 at 6:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-05-19T18:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 2 NW Mount Clifton |
| Iem County | Shenandoah |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | LWX |
| Iem Remark | Several large tree limbs blew down along VA-42 Senedo Road from VA-263 Orkney Grade to the 10000 block. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_38.780_-78.740_1779216600000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779216600000,"latitude":38.78,"longitude":-78.74}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 10 February 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 34/100, near Culpeper (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 188 scientific monitoring sources.