Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 2 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 4 September 2026 at 19:45 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
No stronger detection stands among the 25 recorded within 20 km of this point since 17 March 2026 — 3 others scored the same. The last comparable one was on 3 September 2026.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued September 4 at 3:31PM EDT until September 4 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 76,954 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 17 March 2026
- September 3, 2026 · score 45 · 9.4 km
- September 2, 2026 · score 32 · 17.7 km
- July 22, 2026 · score 22 · 21.2 km
How we know
Confirmed by 2 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 45 out of 100, at 85 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v4. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | High |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 45 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 85% |
| Coordinates | 38.5241, -79.3126 |
| Nearest City | Harrisonburg (39 km) |
| Population Exposed | 77.0K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | severe |
| Timestamp | 2026-09-04T19:31:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn%3Aoid%3A2.49.0.1.840.0.e8ae6b94bc00807764c9fb0fdf35467663df5f76.001.1 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Culpeper, VA; Madison, VA; Orange, VA; Page, VA; Shenandoah, VA; Warren, VA and 5 more areas |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued September 4 at 3:31PM EDT until September 4 at 3:45PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-09-04T15:45:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 8 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.e8ae6b94bc00807764c9fb0fdf35467663df5f76.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.30da3c8e08665bcf584577e6f8526e8810f4e1d2.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.93986c303eb3e63b5d51f4ec340be020c063305a.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.58ace0e2353592c1df80ec6f675d2680475dcf03.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.23f09992654931e5f85b574c457d6e021215fa9f.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.8e3b9a2cfec0e2cdc5e1f9a0fe406a88b51ffa27.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.9e2f868088ebc6c07f312dc6a4c54fd71f24ab53.002.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.dce0d865c279130303d37efacc44de9a12a1ae83.001.1"] |
| Spc ReportType | hail |
| Spc Speed | 100 |
| Spc Location | 1 W Luray |
| Spc County | Page |
| Spc State | VA |
| Spc Comments | Quarter size hail observed by trained spotter in Luray. (LWX) |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"spc_wind_38.67_-78.48_18","source":"spc","severity":"medium","severityValue":45,"timestamp":1788545100000,"latitude":38.67,"longitude":-78.48},{"id":"spc_hail_38.67_-78.48_35","source":"spc","severity":"high","severityValue":65,"timestamp":1788545100000,"latitude":38.67,"longitude":-78.48}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Want to know when something happens in this area?
Calamity.live data shows a weather event with CalamityScore 45/100 (United States), based on data from noaa. Source: Calamity.live, a platform aggregating real-time data from 185 scientific monitoring sources.