Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 66 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 19 May 2026 at 21:30 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 6th strongest of the 131 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 13 March 2026. The last comparable one was on 1 April 2026.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 19 at 5:04PM EDT until May 19 at 5:30PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
Urban PEI: 1,701,946 within a heuristic 50 km radius; not unique people.
Nearby, since 13 March 2026
- March 17, 2026 · score 52 · 1.0 km
- May 19, 2026 · score 52 · 4.0 km
- March 16, 2026 · score 76 · 9.6 km
How we know
2 recorded sources include NOAA; independence is not established by this count.
Our own score for this event is 52 out of 100.
This is our versioned heuristic index, not source severity or a calibrated probability. Urban PEI does not count unique people.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 52 / 100 |
| Legacy data-support index | 0.84/1 |
| Coordinates | 38.9020, -77.6640 |
| Nearest City | South Riding (14 km) |
| Urban exposure index (PEI) | 1.7M within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-05-19T21:04:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.66c1d7c4f95721544fc326eb0989be5a2917c2a7.001.1 |
Physical priority index · v1. Heuristic priority, not calibrated probability, predictive accuracy or damage. The legacy data-support index combines assigned source support and field availability. Urban PEI is distance-weighted and does not count unique people; zero does not establish that nobody is present. Model cards.
Source and revision timeline
Source: noaa. Occurrence: 2026-05-19T21:04:00.000Z.
First archived: 2026-05-19T21:15:26.522Z. Material modification: not recorded.
Retained revisions are prospective; earlier versions may be unavailable. No revision entry does not prove that a record never changed.
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Fairfax, VA; Fauquier, VA; Loudoun, VA; Prince William, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 19 at 5:04PM EDT until May 19 at 5:30PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-05-19T17:30:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| Google News RssFeed | weather |
| Google News SourceName | AOL.com |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"gnews_weather_494225_177","source":"google_news","severity":"medium","severityValue":40,"timestamp":1779211847000,"latitude":38.9,"longitude":-77.04}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
Review the area, threshold and delivery channel in your account.
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